As you may or may not have heard, Bioware is planning on http://www.pcworld.com/article/250225/early_copies_of_mass_effect_3_will_go_into_space.html. Now Bioware isn't going to let any of those freeloading aliens get there hands on it, so they are attaching them to weather balloons and releasing them just outside of the stratosphere in the next couple days, a full week ahead of the official release date. Now granted, I never paid attention to this game at all and my Mass Effect expertise relies solely on the demo for the second game, but come on, it's space we're talking about here.

So my question, dear people who can outsmart my tiny 17 year old college student brain, is that is there any possibility that a copy might land here in Seattle, Washington? There are 6 total copies slated for launch in New York City, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Berlin, London, and Paris. Now we all know that each copy won't head straight up and head back down from that height, but they will float around for a long period of time trapped in the sky, until most likely landing in the ocean, but I digress. I am not very schooled in wind currents, so that is why I need your help. Do I have a chance to catch a copy in my front yard, or is that scenario doomed to stay trapped in my daydreams forever?

Before I can help, I need to know the exact dimensions of your front yard, and the approximate altitude of your neighborhood.

Short of some very freak prevailing winds, you don't stand a chance of getting one.

Also: I hate such crappy reporting. A weather balloon cannot reach space, the highest one's ever reached only hit half-way to space.

I don't have a tape measure on me, but I would say that it is about the square footage of a 1950's suburban yard, except it is round (excluding the edge with the driveway) and has a tree or two. And I think that the altitude is around 426 feet, I'd reckon.

Okay, I will assume your potential gathering area (your yard) is about 40x65 feet squared, which converts to 242 m².

The surface of the Earth is 510072000 km2, which converts to 4.510072 × 10¹⁵ = 4,510,072,000,000,000 m².

Ignoring winds and altitude, the chance that it will land on your yard is 242 m²/4,510,072,000,000,000 m² = 5.365768 × 10^-12% . Let's round this to 7 significant digits: 0.0000000

Taking into account winds, which favor West to East direction at your New York location and altitude of 426 feet, your chances increase six-fold. Thus, 0.0000000*6 = 0.0000000.

Keep in mind that this chance is 3000X lower than your chance to win a $300,000,000 lottery, and 6000X lower than that of Megan Fox falling asleep naked on your bed.

Best of luck.

When did Seattle, WA move to New York?

Ah, thank you. And I find it intriguing that there is still a chance that Megan Fox will fall asleep naked on my bed...

Oh, I was so busy with my calculations that I misread the post -- new york is where they are being launched. The winds will take them farther East. But depending on the weight of each CD case, they make make several rotations around the Earth before falling into the atmosphere. Nonetheless, the original launch location is often a good starting point for the initial drop into the atmostphere. Thus the winds will likely take them even further from WA, so we need to divide that probabity by 6 instead:

0.0000000/6 = 0.0000000.

This is a better estimate.

Weather balloons don't go all the way around the world. It's rare for them to even travel a few hundred miles.

That said, your estimate isn't too far off

But this isn't a weather balloon we are talking about. Each copy will be attached to a balloon alright, but they won't be launched into a stratosphere, instead they will go a bit further into http://i.usatoday.net/communitymanager/_photos/game-hunters/2012/02/16/MEspace0216x-large.jpg.

It clearly states they are attached to weather balloons. You obviously don't know much about high-altitude weather balloons. They go up very high, but still don't go very far.

You have me there. Hmm... are there any freak hurricanes happening in Las Vegas anytime soon?

Weather balloons are incredibly fragile (which is why they don't travel very far). All a hurricane would do is cause it to fall to the ground faster.

500 mile radius from point of departure is a VERY generous estimate on how far a weather balloon can travel. Your only not-really-a-possibility chance would be the San Francisco one combined with some very freaky weather and incredible luck. Your chances are probably somewhere in the 10^-100 range.

Uh huh, I am a bit rusty when it comes to scientific notation, so is that an incredibly small number, or a very large one?

I wonder what the chances are that the one launched from New York City will land in my area! I'm about 200 miles northwest.... the wind may not be in my favor, but ya never know. I bet it lands in the middle of the ocean, haha

Yes, I am not 100% on the world's wind currents, but some are bound either end up in the ocean or Japan. XD

What a bunch of clowns...

Bioware, not you guys.

Can't it be both?

As for the OT: This is absolutely terrible news, Mass Effect should not be what represents Humanity to the aliens. I think we should send out packages containing Battletoads, the Indiana Jones Trilogy, Eggo Waffles, every Coen Brothers film and anything featuring Billy Dee Williams or Burt Reynolds.

Now Giorgio Tsoukalos is going to have field day, claiming all our best games were developed my aliens...

Does anyone know what version will be sent in each place? For example i'd be pretty annoyed if a PS3 copy landed in my back garden.

Same for a 360 or PC copy. My 360 recently had a second RRoD and my PC might be able to handle it, but all my online friends are on PS3.

Actually, the calculations will be a lot more complicated that the one above, but still, the chances will be so small they are less than 0

You could took a nice short cut and said he has no chance in hell of getting one ;p.

100%

You can trust me, I got my doctorates off the back of a cereal box.

more important are the chances that those copies would still function after being effected by the drastic climate change

This is reassuring. I've only ever been able to get the ones on the insides of pop bottle caps.

When Bioware makes a game, they make it to last. They have to, for how long they'll sit on the shelves.