If I had to guess, I'd say there is an element of luck regarding pickpocketing. However, I'd like to get an official answer regarding the mechanics of it.
Positive. I saved when I was crouching behind him and reloaded after each try. I guess I should take all my other items off then maybe they are gimping my character
This is clearly a bug, a serious one imo. When your chance is like 60+ to steal usually the items work fine, such is the case with lower value items. When they are 1200+(a guess, when you are max skill) value then its starts to get buggy. Here is a link that can describe better than myself http://gaming.stackexchange.com/questions/36264/is-pickpocketing-large-amounts-of-gold-in-skyrim-bugged