The Akaviri invasion which might serve as a natural catalyst for such a political alliance is historically reported as only affecting Morrowind.
Wouldn't be so sure. There are two reported during the timeline, one from Kamal (not included in your timeline), the other some years later by the Tsaesci (for which Vivec sunk Morrowind). Based on the twitter lore trivia, I'm assuming that the invasion which led to the alliance was that from Kamal. We know that the Underking (a Nordic hero) helped the Tribunal to defeat that particular threat. Sounds like the perfect transition into MMO lore to me. I can't think of a source that says the invasion affected only Morrowind, and Tsaesci are reported to have raided as far west as Highrock, so I think it's plausible that both Skyrim and Black Marsh were also hit.
While there's no real proof of this, my thought is that the Aldmeri Dominon of the MMO is different from the late 2nd Era Dominion of the PGE. Having it fall and later reform would be more smooth a change than moving it's creation back 300 years, at least in my opinion.
Awesome website, by the way
