So many people are utterly convinced that ESO is guaranteed to go the way of ToR and offer F2P options within the first year. So okay then. Let's all put our predictions down here for all the world to see. Don't forget to comment as well as voting, and bear in mind that I will absolutely be linking to this on whatever forums we have then, whichever way it goes. If I'm wrong about this, I will absolutely eat crow. You're all so certain of your own opinions, time to put your money where your mouth is.

EDIT: Just in case I wasn't clear above, my vote is for yes.

I think with the game they are building and their concepts for the game that the sub model will be very sustainable for many years.

6 votes, and still no comments? Come on people, the idea is to put your name beside your opinion. I won't have any fun gloating otherwise...

Matt Firor seems really confident that the game will work as P2P. I have my doubts, but only time will tell.

There's no way the game stays P2P after the first year. History and past presentation shows the P2P model is a long term losing proposition, the bad thing about this is I feel Zenimax knows this and is using this to recoup the cash and could care less about the long term survival of the game. Once the game transitions into a F2P model it will be deemed a failure and will never be able to recover and grow in the way we as fans want to see the game grow.

This should be voted only by those who played it and have an idea of how the final product will be like, but if it won't be an "idiot-friendly" game i'm sure they will have to lower their subscription in order to achieve more subscribers and i really hope it will be a challenging game because that way the community that will revolve around ESO will be a higher quality one than in other "stay still and spam two buttons" mmos.

I think it will make a year. I do think there will be an eventual transition to a free to play model, but I don't think it will happen within the first year.

I have more faith in this studio than to think they will falter and go f2p in the first year. But could it happen down the road? Yes it could. And that could be a failing of the gaming community and not the developers.

If so much of the community have become casual f2p that want to jump between 20 different games in a year and have zero involvement with their characters, than there is no point trying to make a true online RPG. The genre will have died and it wont matter anyway.

So what did you vote?

We're only talking about the first year here. One step at a time folks. Bear in mind that ToR, the example you guys are all using for your predictions of doom, barely made it past 7 months before F2P was announced.

I didn't vote, because my gut says that it doesn't last a year but I WANT IT TO ArrrRggGH

I can't make predictions about Halo based on what CoD has done. I don't get how people can make predictions about ESO based on what SWTOR has done.

If the game keeps them, it keeps them. It's not a failing on the part of players when they have better options elsewhere and leave to pursue them.

As to involvement with their characters, for me any PvP based game means my 'character' is simply a toon. I play a lot of Planetside 2, but aside from certing him up I have no 'involvement' with my character.

I give them at least 2-3 years. They might even secure the first year with a special offer for 12 months subscription.

I've got serious doubts. It will depend on how fast they can pump out content and if people are really svcked into PvP. Even then, I think there is a bit of a consumer fatigue factor.

Back in the day when subscriptions were king, there weren't other options really. F2P and B2P MMOs used to svck, now they don't. With games like GW2, Tera, Neverwinter, ect. already on the market and games like Black Desert, ArcheAge, EQNext, and others coming out, there will be a lot of substitute goods.

ESO doesn't just have to be a great game anymore. With this model, they need to completely blow away the competition. Which is extensive: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OwRl4xyPHE

Not saying they can't accomplish this lofty goal, but they have raised the bar.

Only time will tell.

But really it kind of reminds me of a drug addict.

Pretty much every single MMO which launched as P2P in the last couple of years has gone F2P. And on every single one of those MMO's people said "No, this time it will be different!" Needless to say, all of those MMO's needed to go back to rehab.

These are my thoughts as well.

Edit: I voted yes.

I come from the future. Sparhwak, you are right, ESO stays P2P for at least a year. However, you go bald, sorry.

Neverwinter? You really think that is a fair comparison? I play Nw and I enjoy it but its a F2P mmo and thus not even in the same class.

Maybe its personal perception but I don't even consider GW2 to be in the same league as TESO based on what I've seen. It just felt like a single player game converted to MP.

That all said, pay models aren't a stand alone decision. The financial goals factor in, is ho fast do they need to make back the investment. What is planned for additional content and the cost of developing it matters.

So it may be that their numbers are low but if they are meeting the goals no reason to change and take a risk. I think the problem with TOR was they thought they would have 42 billions fans paying the sub and bit didn't happen and so the bosses pulled the plug.