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The great division refers to the nuclear war.

They explained this back in Fallout 3.

Yeah me too.

Any ideas on what the conflict btw Synths, COA and Locals might be? I doubt its simple survival.

Yeah but the Swampfolk are awesome.

Cromwell, however, does refer to the coming "Day of Division" when Atom will return:

"We stay true, until the Day of Division until the dawn of your return to this humble world."

Their entire belief system is essentially based off of misinterpreting what happened during the Great War. They think some god (Atom) did it when in reality the Chinese (presumably, based off of the info Fallout 2 and 4 give us) launched their nukes which in turn caused all other countries that had them to launch theirs.

I call it not being able to cope with reality so their minds snapped.

I thought it was pretty obvious that Children of Atom are probably just people who don't realize they're slowly becoming ghouls?

That could also be the case, yes.

Well I think the synths will probably just be trying to survive the COA and locals will have some sort of odd conflict going on. Maybe the COA will be trying to guide everyone to atoms light or convert the synths and the locals to join become children of atom like a missionary trip for lunatics.

You' done messed' up now, boy! Mhm I agree, they were. This time around, we'll face locals with gills, webbed toes and harpoons!

As for COA and Synths, I assume COA will ahve some kind of holy grail of all atomic bombs or some similar artifact and synths will want it for some technological purpose while locals will want both of them of their island.