Your right of course, and the transferrability may be very low - but that would discourage me to such a level that I would likely just go back to playing for a few years and come back modding next game-round. Not that it would be Bethesda or Obsidian's fault of course, it would be my own fault for building too-large a mod and missing the market window (I wonder how many times this happens IRL). If the worst comes true, then all I will be able to say is that I learned alot and hopefully helped the community some along the way, and will dissapear into the wasteland.
However I still have great hope - not for the weapons, I think MadCat221's concerns are spot-on there, but for level design, quests and dialogue I have reason to be optimistic.. I have spent hours scouring over each trailer and making notes on which items I see in FNV that I also know are in Fo3, and noting the FormID or kit-set. This gave me a general idea of how much of the Fo3 content was used, and so far I have over 150 items from different kit sets or themes catalogued - so I know for a fact that most/allot of the Fo3 content got ported over. What Elminster and I both don't know however is if the FormID's changed in the conversion... If the FormID's stayed the same (and we think that it would have, as changing them would have been a horrific task), then porting completed levels from Fo3 to FNV gets a little closer to reality. I have not seen many Fo3 DLC assets in the trailers yet, so I GECKulate that the DLC assets were picked/chosen over versus ported on-mass like alot of the Fo3 base models seem to have.
I also have hope because Chris Avellone himself said that the new quest/dialogue editor they added went in on Top of the old one, and that both still worked. So here I have from the horses mouthes that the Fo3 questing/dialogue formats should work (or be very close). This is actually a Huge deal because quest data is intricate and complicated - not something I look forward to converting. For the dialogue though, the most change may be New features that we can use on our old cells.
Ultimately we need to see the files to know. I have already decided to load-up Fo3Edit and interrogate the NewVegas.ESM (sp?) master Before I play the game - I have to be able to say I'm THAT pathetic for modding that I loaded-up the GECK before I loaded-up the game.

I appreciate your confidence, but really the magician here is Elminster... My contribution to the community for the start of FNV will be to update the Fo3Edit manual/tutorial with JustinOther so that we have a new/better tutorial along with the new NVEdit program ready close to the release.
Stay Tuned! 27 days, 9 hours, 39 minutes.