I'm sure threads like this have been done before, but I don't see one recently, so here we go. I find it interesting to speculate on which side will ACTUALLY end up taking the Dam in the end. I wanna hear some logical arguments for each side, using in game implifications and themes to argue each side. The only other key point I would keep in mind is that the expected outcome will probably be "good." Why? Because just about every story/game ever shoots for a good ending. Previous Fallout games have done so aswell. Personally, I see these ups and downs for each side:



Mr. House


Reasons this might be canon:

-Mr. House is the one who digs the Courier out of the grave and gives him a second chance, with only subtle hints about him actually being responsible up until the player reaches Vegas. Mr. House winning the war would both be a logical move for the Courier and ties in well with the foreshadowing done towards his existance along the way to Vegas.
-Fallout endings have generally involved the "good guys" winning, and Mr. House is arguably far more good than bad. His ending is perhaps the best for Vegas as a whole in the long-run, though not in the short.


Reasons Mr. House might NOT be canon:

-Despite being perhaps the most promising candidate for New Vegas in the long-term, Mr. House is one of the worst for New Vegas in the short-term, creating problems for the Followers of the Apocalypse (perhaps the most "good" faction in the game) and likely outright destroying the Kings (again, an incredibly "good" faction)
-Mr. House's victory also upsets three of seven companions in their endings..



NCR

Reasons NCR might be canon:

-Fallout games generally end with the "good guys" winning. The NCR is capable of having -THE- most peaceful, diplomatic ending of all and the best in the short run, allowing every minor faction to survive.
-The game as a whole heavily insists upon supporting the NCR. They have the most quests of any faction and three of the game's seven companions hope for their success, a fourth (Veronica) feeling relieved if they win under certain circumstances.
-The NCR Ranger is practically the mascot for New Vegas, again suggesting their success.
-The NCR is one of two ways to play the game without losing a companion along the way (Veronica will generally leave the player if they support Mr. House or Caesar. Not always the case, but very difficult to prevent unless the player truly tries to avoid this)
-One could argue that the NCR may mimic the old Southwestern Commonwealth, which included Southern California (where the NCR already is) and Nevada. In support of this idea, Caesar's Legion seems to be doing the same, mimicing the borders of the former Four States Commonwealth.


Reasons NCR might NOT be canon:

-It is heavily discussed throughout the game that the NCR is losing itself, spreading itself too thin, getting robbed blind by Vegas and getting lead by the very NCR citizens who shouldn't be leading. An NCR loss at the Hoover Dam by Mr. House or Yes man would be the perfect smack on the nose that would both keep Vegas peaceful AND waken the NCR into rethinking how they run themselves, leaving BOTH Vegas and the NCR to potentially profit from the loss.
-It can also be seen as logical that the New CALIFORNIA Republic would be stopped at Vegas; a part of Nevada.
-The game heavily insisting that the player support the NCR does NOT neccesarily take away from a victory for Mr. House or Yes man; both of them also fight for NCR support to an extent.


Caesar's Legion

Reasons the Legion might be canon:

-The Legion is arguably the most organized faction in the game. Without player support towards other factions, the Legion stands in the best position to win the war.

Reasons the Legion might NOT be canon:


-The very fact that the Legion stands the best odds at winning WITHOUT interference of the Courier could also be argued against them. If the Courier is to be seen as a hero, then it's only logical that he would be the deciding factor to stop the Legion. Many games present the idea of a doomed world WITHOUT the help of the player character.
-Generally the "good guys" win in the end, and Caesar's Legion is widely seen as the most evil of the main factions.
-The age of the in-game Caesar is 55: the exact age at which Julius Caesar himself died. This implies an end for the Legion, or at the very least, for Caesar himself. Caesar would however be doomed to die without interference of the player character, which would happen if the player were to support a different faction.
-The game seems to insist that the player work against the Legion. Two of the games seven companions will refuse to follow a supporter of the Legion, a third (Veronica) doing the same unless certain conditions are met.



Yes man

Reasons independent Vegas might be canon:

-It would fit quite well into the theme of Vegas itself: luck. Mr. House himself possesses incredible luck, able to keep Vegas independent of both the NCR and Legion ONLY because they happened to show up at his doorstep at the the same time to keep each other from taking over Vegas, able to defeat them both ONLY because the Courier took two shots to the head at close range and miraculously survived. The Courier himself however, has luck even greater than Mr. House himself, having the perfect setup to take Vegas all for himself.
-The Courier parallels Benny, being the only other person in a position to overthrow Vegas. This in itself almost implies it should be done.
-Independent Vegas, aside from NCR, can have the most peaceful short term ending, allowing every minor faction to survive.
-Independent Vegas is only one of two ways to keep all seven companions happy, the other being NCR.
-It's very hard to argue why independent Vegas would NOT be the canon ending: this ending leaves everything the most open-ended, story wise, allowing the writers to easily change what becomes of Vegas as they see fit.
-Independent Vegas leads to the best ending for Goodsprings; one could argue that although murdering the man who dug you out of the grave is horrible, the good ending for those who helped the Courier get back on his feet is quite logical for the overall story.


Reasons independent Vegas might NOT be canon:

-Stories generally involve "good guys" and "good endings." Independent Vegas would force the Courier to murder the very man who saved his life, who also has a vast amount of knowledge and technology that could do good for New Vegas that would die with him, should the Courier choose to murder him.
-Although peaceful for all companions, they are generally less satisfied than they would be under NCR control.

you're right, there was a topic before... it disappeared .. weird

ontopic: I think Mr. House will be canon. Yes Man ending is pretty cool, but then the Courier takes control, and Obsidian would have to come up with what the character was of the Courier canonically and how he/she rules over New Vegas. The Legion is just awful. The NCR is too unstable, you already nicely explained this in your post.

None of the above if Beth does Fallout 4 on the west coast and they will do a Warp Of The West type change to the lore. If I had to pick out of the four I would go with Mr. House although I'm biased in that choice.

I think it'll be Yes Man or NCR.
NCR because of dragging that dead stinking rotten horse on a little longer.
And Yes Man because it ruptures order and we go back to FO3 anarchy... Yay...

What I hope is canon on the other hand is Legion.
Why?
Too tired to explain right now but let's just say that they are a new faction that seems very important and has not had enough content to be ended this quickly.
Would love to see them for at least another game.

I don't see why House should win at all though.
The difference between him and Yes Man is that House is rooted to the ground.
So if there is a new game in the west then I can surely say that it's not going to take place in Vegas again.
So if House wins then we won't see him or Vegas.
I want who wins to show up again, not just hear vague bits and pieces of them.

Well as we all found out, Yes Man is evil/Mr House. That puts Mr House at 2 of the possible endings thus making it more likely.

I'm sorry, im going to put that in every thread about the endings/factions.

if Yes Man is evil, he'd eventually turn on the Courier, and who are you to say the Courier can't defeat his army of robots?

He goes to be more "err...assertive...". Also, he cant die. I never said the Courier cant defeat his army.

he can't die because if he could, you wouldn't be able to end the game. eventually he'll run out of securitons.