Based on that logic, all the events surrounding the Champion of Cyrodiil "never happened" for people that never played Oblivion. I think it makes sense the CoC is now Sheograth.
We're going to go ahead and assume that only people who have at least played stock Oblivion count in this debate, otherwise there would be no lore to debate at all. Let's just say, for instance, a player's character was decidedly GOOD, having nothing to do with the realm of evil in any way. The player would therefore never finish the Shivering Isles, and never become Sheograth.
I usually make my favorite run-throughs with a Dunmer, walking on the side of good and all that. I did not complete Shivering Isles, as it would have been completely out of character. So I never became Sheograth. Summer can live for millenia, so assuming I did not die of some disease, or a mass cliff racer attack upon my chance return to Morrowind, I would still be alive in 4E 187.
In my personal role-play, Cicero could very well have killed me in the Great Forest.
But, if you personally adhere to the Shivering Isles included lore, all the more power to you. =)