» Wed May 30, 2012 10:34 pm
Well, your thesis has a problem: Daggerfall was a vastly larger game than Arena, so in at least one case the scope increased.
However, the real issue causing the "shrinkage" of the Elder Scrolls game is the cost of creating content assets -- that is, graphics and sound.
Arena and Daggerfall were all-text. There was no video, no voice, and the graphics were rudimentary -- that is, I'd believe they had a couple of graphic artists doing textures and the world design was done by the programmers. And the world, while huge, was almost entirely randomly-generated -- i.e. boring lands of kick down door, kill random monster, collect random treasure. Most dungeons looked eerily familiar. The games sold for $60.
Morrowind had vastly better graphics, showing real attention to detail. It looks primitive now, but at the time for an RPG (i.e. an open-world game, not a shooter where you're basically on rails) it was revolutionary. All those graphics cost money to create! In addition, we had a little bit of voice dialog (though nowhere near a fully-voiced game -- the vast majority of dialog was text.) Also, this time the world was pregenerated! No procedural lands or random dungeons -- everything was set out by hand, drastically increasing the cost of development, though many dungeons did still look eerily familiar after a time. It still sold for $60.
Oblivion had spectacular graphics -- with the spectacular cost involved. I wouldn't be surprised if creating graphics took more time than programming and game design. In addition, it was fully voiced -- every word spoken by a voice-actor. This makes every line of dialog hundreds of times more expensive. Unsurprisingly, there is vastly less dialog in the game -- which also means vastly fewer NPCs, since every NPC has to say something. The recycling of voice actors was obvious, and the "eerily familiar dungeons" effect still happened sometimes, albeit less often than in Morrowind. Oh, and it still sold for $60.
Skyrim has about the same graphics quality as Oblivion, since it has to run on the same 5-year-old consoles. And it's about the same size as Oblivion; shorter mainline quests, but the addition of random quests added playtime. Still fully voiced, and honestly probably the best dungeon-crawl game of all time -- every single dungeon is handmade, and every one is unique. No more eerily familiar dungeons -- every cave, Dwemer ruin, castle, etc. is totally different, and many are filled with interesting surprises. Random content is gone -- once again increasing development cost. And... it's $60.
We're paying the same amount for all these games. But while faster computers mean we can play these games with their fancy graphics and full voice-acting on PCs that cost no more than the ones we had in 1995, it doesn't make these assets any cheaper to create! And Bethesda knows that if they made a game with primitive graphics and no voice-acting, only a tiny number of hardcoe PC gamers would actually buy that game -- the polish and flash is required to sell in the $60-game market, or to sell on consoles at all. Unless we're all willing to start shelling out $250 for games, we're going to have to accept that better graphics & voice-acting = shorter games, and there's nothing Bethesda or anyone else can do about it.