Ulfric isn't stupid. The Thalmor were playing both sides of the coin during the civil war quests and would of preferred to have the war go on indefinitely as it only further helps their plans. If the Thalmor invaded Skyrim the Stormcloaks wouldn't stand a chance, so either Ulfric is in some sort of negotiation with them or the Thalmor have some ulterior motives (i.e Snow-Throat tower).
Actually I have no doubt in my mind that Ulfric is that stupid and then some. Judging by what we know about him he's a true Nordic patriot, which means he won't bow to anyone for any reason if he views them as a threat to Skyrim. Besides his distrust for the Empire and starting this civil war because of the Empire loosely allying themselves with the Thalmor, the people who have rallied behind him in support would stop supporting him immediately if they found out he was in negotiations with the Thalmor.
I think he's stupid enough to blindly fight a war that does nothing but weaken both Thalmor targets, but not stupid enough to betray everyone who joined because of his cries of fighting the Empire and the Thalmor by being in negotiations with them. And if the Thalmor was caught working with both sides of the civil war neither side would be happy with them, putting them in a bad political position.