By 'win', I mean everybody else is bust...I hold all the chips


Nice maths

Whoops, only just noticed
As you can see Maths isn't my strong point so it's definitley not 90% of Poker.

That means you win tournements.

Sorry, that was a bit mean.

It's a good way to grasp the basics, yes. However, you're better off practicing against human opponents in real life in casual games. In Red Dead Redemption, you can't read your opponents' faces (They do occasionally spout one-liners, but that doesn't seem to be related to what they actually have in their hand) plus the AI tends to make stupid moves occasionally. For example, it's easy to exploit the AI to infinitely raise by simply raising by a small amount at a time. They'll keep on raising until they have to go all in as long as you don't raise too much at a time. Sometimes they just call or fold, but that's pretty rare.

There is way more luck involved. But that's not to say that luck equals bad play. If you have a Queen and a Jack and flop a pair of jacks with the other two cards being low cards then you ought to feel that you are in good position. If the person before you makes a large bet then you have to call. if the turn is another low card then you still must feel good. If the river is a queen than you ought to raise. If the person calls with a king and a jack then you win. However, he out played you and you got lucky even though you played it properly.

That's why it's also important to know when to fold

You can't win every game but being able to do fast probability maths in your head helps you take informed decisions, which means that even when you lose it's never a surprise.

But it's not really luck. It's psychology in that you have to try to work out what the other person has, to guess at whether you beat them or not. And it's Maths in that you can work out your odds as to whether you should play or fold. Both these things combined work to define what you should do with your luck.

Your opponent has hardly outplayed you anyway. Depending on what you raise on the river, he should probably have the odds to fold.

When you have absolute garbage it is important to fold, but when you flop top pair, mid pair, straight draw, flush draw, or a mixture the odds pretty much require you to stay. It is really difficult to figure out your odds during a hand because you cannot see your opponents' cards, but there are a lot of situations where the odds are 70-30 and the 30 will win. You could argue that skill put them in that situation, but so did luck.

Okay who's gonna find someplace online to organize our Beth Forums Poker Championship? Just for fun, of course

How exactly did he out play me?

And no one is disputing the fact that there is luck involved with poker. It's just not the majority.

Lots of games require some luck. Take Soccer. You do your best to strike the ball the way you want, but say there are uneven parts in the field. You are either lucky or not regarding if you hit those imperfections.

Take Hockey. Most hockey players can strike the puck so hard the puck reaches terminal velocity. There is a little luck involved in the goalie defending those shots.

Poker might have more luck in it than actual sports but there is still skill involved.

Not really, in that situation you have to consider your hand to be the best. The only likely better hand would be a low set or a jack with a higher kicker. Since both of those hands are unlikely any good player would call until the river. The person with the king is an +70% favorite to win the pot and even with a queen on the river he would be to invested to fold.

If there is a small pot then the guy with a king could fold depending what the bet it, but it would be stupid of him to do so. Though, if you end up with top two pair in your hand and end up forcin' your opponent to fold then that is bad play on your part.

And thats where reading the player comes in.

Anymore questions?

He had a high kicker and was able to properly drag you along. He was the clear favorite on the turn but got unlucky on the river.

I do not doubt that a considerable amount of skill is needed, I was simply commentin' on how luck determines more than 10% of the game as suggested in a previous post.

No! Your opinion is wrong! WRONG I TELL YOU!

No... you cannot read a player in that situation and even if you think they have a higher kicker then you still have to call because your hand is too good to fold. Foldin' with top pair on the flop (assuming that it is a rainbow flop, unpaired, or no obvious straight draws) is stupid and only a paranoid idiot would do so.

It depends on what he bet, how he plays and what his tendencies were before hand. With the hand you're talking about if you hit a Queen on the river (and there was no betting b/c you did not state there was which is actually a very important fact) then you would either bet big or raise.


Why can't you read your oponent if you have top pair????

And what if the top pair on a flop is like a pair of sevens?

People fold god hands all the time. Again, there are too many variables you're not considering to fully lay out a poker scenario.

If you are guessing while playing poker, a good game like Texas Hold Em at least, you are doing it wrong.

You can't see your opponent's 2 hole cards but you can see the cards on the board and that is usually enough infomation to make a good decision. In you rprevious example the player who flopped Jacks did make a mistake, he needs to raise on the flop, not call.

Right down to the suit you can hide cards in

There is nothing preventin' you from guessing that he has a jack... but the likelihood of him havin' a better hand low enough that a fold would be a bad idea. The majority of the feature the possibly of the other guy havin' a better hand, but if you are to fold a hand like top pair with a good kicker then you will never break even. So yes, I can think he has a jack, but the pros of stayin' in out weights the reasons to fold.

If the flop is low cards and you have two over cards a call against sevens is good or bad dependin' on the size of the pot. You would need to either hit a pair on the turn or the river. This would make your outs 6/45 on the turn and 6/44 on the river, around 28%. If there was a large bet pre-flop then a small call would be a great move. You left out the possibilities of a straight or flush, so I will assume that neither or possible outcomes.


Both players flopped jacks. Either could have raised and it would have been a good raise and the other would have had to call. The person with the king would be better of slow playin' the hand.

I can't follow you're reply.

Now that I got the meatloaf in the oven I can expand on this a bit. I don't play nearly enough poker, I used to play on-line quite a bit before it became illegal here in the States. I play pretty serious competitive poker with my friends a coupel of times a year; unfortunately the game is usually over an hour away and with drinks involved I only go when I can crash there.

There are a lot of different things that go into a poker hand:

Position of the players
The players' pot size
Tournament or cash ring game
Past history of the players
Opponent's state of mind
My cards

You see I put my cards last, and many times they are the lowest priority when I am deciding what to do. I have folded pocket Aces on a seemingly harmless flop and I have gone all-in pre-flop with 7-2 unsuited.

wolf bite's example was OK if you are talking about some friends just screwing around throwing chips and cards around for giggles. It doesn't work in a competitive environment at all, both players played the hand terribly. First off I would never be in a two person hand with neither player raising pre-flop and we don't know who, if anyone, raised. I also would have no problem folding a weak top pair like Jacks with a Queen kicker if I respected my opponent's bet.

Secondly calling is almost never the right decision, especially calling all the way to the river with a marginal hand. The vast majority of the time you should be making the first bet, raising your opponent's bet or folding. Don't get stuck in the middle where you are throwing money into a pot when you have no idea where you stand. In wolf bite's example after your opponent makes a big bet on the flop you either fold (if you have reason to respect the bet) or raise in order to either win the pot, or most importantly to gain infomation. Even if opponent calls, or re-raises you, you then know you are likely beat and you fold probably saving money as compared to calling out to the end.

You should always have a reason to make a bet/raise. Either that bet/raise will win the hand right there, or that bet/raise will give you information which will help you later in the hand, or even later in the tournament. Making a bet just because, is almost always a bad idea and will cost you money in the long run.

Or the other player might re-raise, it's definitely a possibility with the flop you describe. In either case, the opponent in this sense has not played better than you, because they have not won the hand before the queen has a chance to show up. You could claim that its luck from the offset if the queen doesn't come up and they win with a king kicker, but it's not the cards you're dealt that wins in poker it's how you use them - the cards themselves only help in the same sense that luck comes into any game.

I wouldn't put cards as last in the order of what you use to make your decisions based on, they're almost certainly first, if not second to your position. I also find it hard to think of a flop in which I would fold pocket aces? Care to explain?

Sorry I can't be bothered to quote since I'm on my phone and it's a nightmare

Not always last, but they are not as important as many people think.

I made my normal 3x BB bet with the Aces from early-ish position. Eveyone folded expect big blind who called, I have played with him before and know he plays a lot of flops but is rather passive after the flop. Flop came with a bunch of low cards, but not low enough for me to have a chance at hitting the wheel but I liked my chances. I made a standard continuation bet, hoping for a call and was re-raised pretty big. I was rather certain he hit a set or a very unlikely straight and folded almost immediately. I would have re-raised against 75% of the human population there but I was pretty sure he had something that I would be hard pressed to beat.

Now for my bad beat story.

The one and only time I played in a casino, it was a 9 person, $2/$5 ring game. I had held my own for about an hour or two, was pretty close to my original $300 buy in, but down a little. I was in the big blind and was dealt A-5 unsuited. Guy in 2nd postion calls, ~6th position calls and I check. Flop comes 7-5-5 rainbow and I am pumped, I got a set with Ace kicker. Both players check to me and I bet about 1/2 the pot, hoping for at least one call; 2nd calls and 6th folds. Turn was a face card, 2nd checks to me and I make another smallish bet which is called, things are looking good. River comes with another face card, no possiblity of a straight or flush. 2nd position goes all-in, with more than I have so I call for all my chip. He had 7-7 and flopped a full boat.