True, but predicting the increased prevalence of F2P gaming hardly takes a supercomputer. Before 2004 almost all MMOs had a subscription service. Mid-decade there were several years where tons of MMOs were released and promptly died, a combination of the market being glutted, games being backed by studios that were too small to support them, and WoW steamrolling the competition. During this time we see the rise of alternate revenue: some MMOs switch to being F2P, others only require that you pay for the game and expansions, and a few try a hand at real money in-game stores. Since the initial rise of these alternate methods they have continued to become more common. So it hardly takes a professional games anolyst to see that alternate methods are trending up and subscription services remain exclusive to a few major titles. The reason for this is also pretty clear: people don't want to pay for multiple MMO subscriptions are once, so a paid service requires stealing people away from an existing MMO or tapping into people who have already left.
This anolyst also didn't mention a time frame. I would have been far more impressed if this anolyst claimed that TESO would switch to F2P within a certain time frame if it launched with a subscription service. But I'll admit this is a catch-22: the more specific he is the less I'd trust him without seeing the data, but the more specific he is the more likely his data and process are worth protecting.
Oh I see, you're saying his anolysis isn't really anything anyone couldn't discern with a basic knowledge of market trends. Agreed, but as much as we can say that and know that, there will be many who call us out as laymen and self-proclaiming experts with no real knowledge. It is at least good to see a professional anolyst echoing many people's claims.
He didn't mention a time-frame. My prediction, for what it's worth: 6 months and it will be obvious that it should be F2P, 6 more months before it goes Freemium (LOTRO style).
» Tue May 15, 2012 2:45 am 
