Judging from Steam's current performance, I'd say the chances of initial sales "tanking" are somewhere around 0%.
Not for anything, but there are a TON of American products that are ridiculously expensive in other countries. In fact, the price hike in Australia, well, that has NOTHING to do with Bethesda since you're not buying from them directly. My guess is, like virtually all cases, it has more to do with your local tariffs, fees, duties, etc.
And, FWIW, game prices, like movie prices, book prices, and any other intellectual property have very little to do with hard products like paper and CDs. And, actually, if you REALLY think about it, you're FAR better off with a product like this off of Steam, where THEY keep your backup copy. No worries about destroyed discs.

Just download again. New computer, no problem, just download again, no pesky reg checks or anything like that.