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a full scale falmer invasion of the surface seems unlikely. their weapons are probably weaker than the stormcloaks/imperials, being made out of a lesser creatures bones, probably only infused with iron.
The battlefield is a tremendously confusing, and all the noise? the falmer probably wont be able to find a single target and may wind up flailing around uselessly, unless they see like daredevil. but still, it would be extremely difficult for the falmor to successfully stage an invasion.
I could not disagree more.
In DG, they have some interesting armor options.
Even without the upgraded armor, the falmer are fearsome opponents. They go thru bandits like a chainsaw. Falmer hit very hard and can take quite a surprising amount of punishment. Their arrows and bows are weak, but they are quite dangerous at close quarters.
It is INEVITABLE that the falmer will erupt onto the surface. You can see indications in Vanilla Skyrim that they emerge at night to hunt and raid, and in Dawnguard they do significantly more than that.
When they do emerge in large numbers, it will be devastating. I suspect they will have at least a modicum of organization - after all, they are already industrious and organized enough to make potions and poisons, learn some magic, and build armor, weapons and dwellings, in addition to farming mushrooms, keeping herd animals of a sort (frost spiders and chaurus) and even keeping slaves (blackreach.)
Their most devastating tactic would be to fight at night, where they will have a distinct advantage.
It wouldn't surprise me if the falmer erupt under Whiterun and emerge from the ruined parts of markarth.
If the Thalmor ever manage to make contact and ally with them.................................