This has been discussed over and over again and my opinion is still the same. A war with the Thalmor and the Aldmeri Dominion is too great of a gaming opportunity to be left in a DLC. It deserves a game for itself.
Could very well be both, kind of. The current engine is clean enough to dev a whole new game on. To merge into Skyrim, no probably not, too much to meld, too many variables and quests will get majorly glitched, guaranteed, if they're parallel. BUT, engine in place, you can't rule out a "Skyrim 2"/TES VI:Dominion.