hmm depends if you fast travel alot, i dont unless its city to city on a carriage and by using the fast travel method i've encountered about 3 in (one every other travel roughly)
from walking around, exploring and stuff i've encountered one and im now level 30.
This^ assuming you have activated the quest that starts random dragon spawns, you can still totally avoid them by fast traveling as soon as you exit a town or dungeon. (of course not counting the rare town attack, or even rarer dragon spawn in your face outside a cave, but for a great majority of cases.)