I'm quite positive the memory leaks are from the dll, since it turns out I incorrectly assumed it was stable even though it was a debug dll, probably shouldn't have released this water yet, my bad

Hopefully a fix will be out soon though.
Edit: In the mean time, if you don't mind not having reflections, you can use the OBGEv2.dll from the obge core package, in order to get rid of the memory leaks.
Sorry it took awhile to get back on this. So the same issue persisted even after disabling the .esp and only using the water.fx from the shaderlist.txt file.
It's an interesting memory leak. Basically the memory usage continues to go up during new cell loading, fast traveling. Basically any time new content/objects enters the cell.
If I stay still, the memory usage doesn't increase, but it also doesn't decrease. Oblivion's normal memory usage behavior would typically purge out old data in order to make room for new data when changing cells etc...
This is clearly not the case when using the new water.
Really hope this bug can be fixed as the water is amazing!!
EDIT - My crash happened at around 2.6gb memory usage this time, but again right after the crash the memory usage sky rockets to 3.7gb - 3.8ish gb of memory usage. I would say it would keep climbing, but since the addressed space is preventing it, it just stops there. I can't find a pattern yet for what reason the inital crash takes place. 2 times is it was during exploring exterior cells. The last crash was during a loading screen when entering the gates to Chorrol.