I'd like to talk about subscriber numbers briefly. What Zenimax might be aiming for, and how they can keep those numbers constant. It's at the forefront of my mind after today's news that Bioware's SWTOR MMO has http://kotaku.com/5908338/star-wars-the-old-republic-loses-400000-subscribers (nearly 25% of their previously reported number).

http://uk.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338 as saying that SWTOR will be profitable so long as they can retain 500 thousand active players. Anything over a million and they're golden. Luckily for them, they're still well into that 1 million mark, with 1.3 million subscribers still playing. The worrying thing is that the game is still in the start of its cycle. World of Warcraft, by comparison, had a steady climb up to the 13 million mark before beginning to drop in any meaningful way. SWTOR is also infamous for quite possibly being the most expensive game ever made, http://www.thatvideogameblog.com/2012/01/23/swtor-development-cost-200-million/ I'm not sure how long they would need to keep hold of those 500 thousand plus paying customers before the game turns a decent profit, considering the upkeep of an MMO (not just servers, but the staff involved in managing the game, its forums, and developing additional content) is so high. It can be safe to assume however, that Bioware will be aiming to keep this active for at least 5 years, and preferably closer to 10. Losing 25% of their player base so soon has got to be worrying.

So what about TES Online? We're well aware that back in 2007 http://www.warcry.com/news/view/78304-ZeniMax-Gets-300-Million-To-Invest-in-MMOG-Bethesda to invest in its games, with a substantial amount of that (though specifics are unknown) being used to fund Zenimax Online's new MMO venture. We also know that TES Online will feature fully-voiced characters, just like SWTOR, and since voice acting is such an expensive side to development we can also assume that the costs of development will be very similar to SWTOR's estimated $200 million. It's a lot of assumptions, but it's based on some good facts. It makes SWTOR a great comparison for the number of subscribing players that Zenimax will be aiming for.

So that raises two questions, which is what I would like to get some discussion on:

1) Why is SWTOR bleeding numbers so soon? Is that to be expected? Should Bioware be worrying, and considering methods of stopping this player-bleed before the numbers get too close to their minimum line of 500k?

2) Is there anything Zenimax could learn from SWTOR's opening 6 months? Lessons that can be applied to TES Online's launch window to ensure a higher number of starting players, and to provide an experience enjoyable enough to hold on to those players.

My first MMO was Lineage 2, which I played for just over a year until the game began to lose too many players. From there, I moved on to World of Warcraft (before any expansions had been released), and I have been playing WoW on and off ever since. No other MMO has been able to steal my attention away from that game for long enough. There were two that I thought might succeed. The first was Aion, which claimed to have a revolutionary combat system, and an open world PVP system, fueled by three alliances (one computer controlled) to ensure balance. It didn't work. And it became apparent soon enough that the combat system was just WoW's combat system with a shiny new coat of paint. Aion is now free to play.

The second MMO that showed promise (to me) was SWTOR. Again I found similar issues as I had with Aion. The combat was just like WoW's, and their 'new coat of paint' feature was no auto-attacks. The PR campaign guaranteed us all a more active and adrenaline-pumped combat experience! The PVP, as many of you know, was even worse than Aion's. It was broken from day 1, and remains fairly broken to this day.

My advice to Zenimax would be to ensure, and to make absolutely damn sure, 100% positive, beyond any shadow of a doubt, or Sheogorath take you and put you in his sack of cats (and cats do NOT like sacks), that the combat system in TES Online genuinely is bringing something new to the table. Combat is the one thing in an MMO that players will be doing more than anything else. It HAS to be good. It cannot be like WoW's with a new coat of paint. WoW has had several years to perfect their combat mechanics, so trying to make it feel similar will only serve to highlight to players how not-quite-right some of its aspects are. In SWTOR that not-quite-right part was the skill delay that plagued the game for its first month. I think that may have cost them many of those 400k players. Secondly, I would suggest making Alpha and Beta testing twice as long, and twice as intensive as initially planned. You can't afford to launch a buggy product against WoW. A lot of sane players will defend it, and point out the madness of comparing a new game to one that has had 7 years of refinements, additions, tweaks, and updates. Most players will only care about what they're getting for their money though. A buggy product, or a proven and polished one? They will vote with that money.

That would be my advice on how to aim for a good start, and keep those player numbers up. What would yours be?

I say ditch the single player stale games, bring BGS on full board with Zeni, and create the biggest MMO ever. People will cling to it like nothing we've ever seen.

Brave man, but you should be wary of your words in these parts. You don't know what some of these forum dwellers are capable of

That would be a terrible financial move. Better to have one mega-successful game (SP TES), and have the possiblility to have another successful game (the MMO). That maximizes revenue. Having one single MMO that spits in the face of pretty much all Elder Scrolls fans is not a way to maximize revenue.

Anywho, Zenimax online needs to offer combat that brings something new to the table, and they need to offer quality PVE content as well as PVP content. AND most importantly, they need to acknowledge the existence of their paying customers. (It would be nice if they listened to them [their customers] as well.)

Edit: clarification

Very good point. Hopefully they'll reach out to fans for some detailed feedback once the Game Informer coverage is completed.

There are two additional sources of revenue which might be applied to an MMO:

• Purchase price of the game
  
• Real Money Transfers (RMT) in game

I don't believe they've mentioned if ESO will use any form of RMT but I'd guess there would be some as everyone is doing it. Even if you only consider the retail purchase price selling 5 million copies at $60 gets you to $300 million real quick so it is not as though the entire development investment has to be recouped from the subscription fees.

I also think there are other options that the MMO can consider when its subscription base begins dropping including server mergers to reduce hardware needs and changing the subscription model. For example, Everquest became free-to-play last year and doesn't have anywhere near 500k players at the moment.

Personally, I think the best thing Zenimax Online can do to ensure the game's success is to start getting as much feedback from fans as early as possible (for example, in closed low-number alpha/beta tests). I can't consider designing *anything* costing $300 million without having any sort of feedback throughout the design process whether it is going to succeed or fail. Combine this with the effect of a "blind-spot" when you work intimately with a project for so long that you can't see any of its faults. There's a saying in engineering to "fail early and fail often". You don't want to wait until launch day to find out people don't like it, at which point it is too late.

Combine the time and money it takes to produce a game finished enough to play and you have a huge hole (read money pit) you need to fill asap. This means games often launch before they are bug free and ready, and more importantly before there is enough end game content.

I would say a new MMO in this market needs the most polished, trouble free release possible, followed by a couple of big 'surprises' of new content at the 2 and 3 month points. And any new content must not mess up the game with any bugs.
I'd also recommend powerful incentives to keep an ongoing sub, such as desirable rewards for continually subbed players, and something for players who sub from release.

Really I'd expect to see the majority of content for max level players, rather than for leveling which more old school games had.

Some other thoughts:
Release date just before Christmas would increase subs.
Come down hard on exploiters, gold farmers and bots. How they respond to this kind of thing at release will set the tone for the game.
Have dedicated marketing for foreign players.
Engage the playerbase with very long term, ongoing stats counters, like leader boards, so that players can see an advantage to playing at least a little, often.
Never neglect the hardcoe gamers who are going to need a quick achievement fix (discovery, success) followed by plenty of end game content. Truly hardcoe players can be very loyal and log in every day literally for years.
Never, never, never underestimate how crucial the community is. Try and generate a feeling of shared experience and enthusiasm with official community events. Reward the 'good' players, and get rid of the bad ones.
No over hyping. I think it's important to meet the expectations of players. Even if you have to undersell your product, that's better than releasing something that doesn't impress because the game doesn't live up to the hype.

Yes. Because it actually is too much like WoW, without nearly being as good. People throw around the word WoW-Clone here, well, ToR is actually a correct example of a WoW clone (unlike ESO).

1. It has the same hubbed quest design, go to villiage, get 10 quests from guy with question/mark and triangle, then complete them in grocery list style. I feel that any new MMO comming out with this is doomed to failure. This world/quest design is probably one of the top reasons for MMO hatred. The next reason is the tired combat.

2. The combat is identical to WoW (considerably moreso than ESO), while being much worse. It isn't as tight or responsive, and offers no reflex action like GW2/ESO does. MMO's directly using WoW's combat are doomed to failure, you need to atleast add some new features or make it superior in smoothness. ToR does neither.

3. Performance, GFX, and artstyle issues. It barely looks better than WoW (and doesn't even have dx11 effects like WoW), while running considerably worse. Hell, it even had worse texture than WoW until recently. Now to finally inject some opinion -> I thought the artstyle was the worst in any recent MMO. Its more silly than Clone Wars tv show for kids.

3. The pvp svcks compared to its closest competition, Rifts and WoW. Laggier and clunkier.


I honestly don't think the "lack" of end-game had anything to do with it, they have been putting out new stuff at a very fast pace. It was purely game design and inner working problems.



The biggest make or break on release, from what i've seen, is the smoothness, responsiveness, and tightness of combat (which is sad that a 2011 MMOs couldn't top a 2004 MMO int his reguard). The next is having a fresh quest design, and that doesn't simply mean adding voice overs. If they could perfect those, it will do fine.

If you don't want to play stale single-player games... play WoW or another MMO that this game will be a LITE version of.

Great points about RMT. That's another source of income they could follow, the way WoW has a store for aesthetic additions like unique mounts and non-combat pets. You're quite off the mark about retail purchases though - they've got the costs involved of materials, shipping, and publisher fees to consider. And then there's the retailers like GameStop and Amazon who are going to want their cut of the sale. The developer sees very little return from that $60.
That was one of Aion's most interesting ideas from a financial perspective. After every month of playing, you were awarded with a gift. Usually they were consumable items like exp boosts, but every 3 months was a unique reward like an in-game title or a shiny new pair of wings (equivalent of a mount in other MMOs). The best part was that you could see what was coming up in a long list, and it was dependant on how long you'd played. So it's not like every paying player in a given month got the same reward - instead, you only got the 3 month reward once you'd payed for a total of 3 months. The 6 month reward after paying for a total of 6 months, etc. So if you stopped playing for a month, you knew you'd be getting behind of other players in that regard.
Yeah, that's my opinion too. The combat is essential because it's what the player will spend most of his/her time doing. SWTOR's was very clunky, suffered from a skill delay issue in the first month, and was so similar to WoW's that comparisons were far too easy to make. If TES Online is doing something similar (starting with WoW's combat mechanics and then adding their own additions, such as the stamina bar) then they have to spend a heck of a lot of time in alpha and beta stages to make damn sure the combat is polished to perfection for release day. The comparisons will be made, and they will be made to a game that has had 8 years (by that point) to get the combat and latency issues nailed.

If they can keep a steady sub base like RIFT i think they will be happy,you don't need WOW subs to turn a profit in the MMO gaming market.You could have 250.000 subs and still be quids in every month.Or if you go BTP like GW2 and have cash shop with non PTW item,just vanity and similar to GW1 you can make some nice cash as well.

Sure, but RIFT didn't cost anywhere near as much to developer as SWTOR did, or TESO is. Most of those costs seem to have come from fully voiced characters.

Mentioning RIFT for its steady subscriber base is interesting though, because RIFT is well known for having one of the smoothest and most bug-free launches in MMO launch history. Could well suggest that first impressions matter a heck of a lot, especially when contrasted with SWTOR and Age of Conan's opening month, and the loss of subscribers that followed.

in an MMO gameplay and combat mechanics are NUMBER ONE like the OP said we will be doing a lot of it and it should be new and TES-y

and don't make the game about "end content"

people love to level up and have fun that way, gear grinding is NOT OK, gear should play a secondary role to player skills and spells and abilities not the main role

in wow if your gear is a little sub par (it has ratings for all that is holy) then no one will play with you, even if the rating is 1 level below requirement ONE LEVEL (gear can get to the 600 level I think.... who cares anyways) it svcks and its an endless gear grind it was boring

only part I loved in wow was leveling a new toon from 1 to 85 with my friend then we got sick of all the "work" to get gear

Stop with this ignorant crap post all over the place. Nothing has really been announced for this game and you are already declaring this mmo-lite. Go to the single player forums. Obviously you aren't a potential customer.

Completely agreed, TES: O needs to bring something new to the table other than another coat of new paint.

Yes he does, he's been a massive troll for a while now. I don't think anyone takes anything he says seriously once they see him post once or twice.

In short, stop feeding the troll please.

Bite your tongue.

I am not a TES Lore fan by any stretch of the imagination. The only other Tes Game I have played besides Skyrim was Oblivion and i only played it a couple of times. The NPC and player graphics and the dialogue were utterly pathetic in Oblivion. Every time one of them spoke I cringed with distaste. Even the Anime mods made me puck. Moreover, given our current economy with the cost of living rising exponentially faster that income and jobs there is no way I am ever going to pay-to-play for a cartoonish looking game. I am reminded of a carnival barker getting you hooked on a shell game.

Graphics don't make a game. How old are you?

Nvm.

If they learn anything from Rift, it's to make sure you have enough content.

From the interview, it appears that ZO want a quick, easy ride to max level like Rift, so unlike Rift they need a lot of end game content at the end of that ride. And some of that end game content needs to be challenging and difficult enough to occupy the hardcoe players. Not all of the content, but just enough to engage those hardcoe players until new content arrives. Big games may make their money from a large, casual playerbase, but never forget many small games do very well simply because they've connected with a smaller, dedicated, hardcoe market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRH3zcHEN5w&feature=player_detailpage#t=215s

Lol.

Give players meaning. A reason to stick around. Give them pride.

Easier said than done, right?

I will call on two past titles that hit it right on the head while everyone is talking about combat systems. By no means am I saying it isn't important, it's just too obvious.

One, DAoC gave players a feeling of pride for their realm. They would do well to delve into the reasons why players felt pride in their realm. The entire leveling process was done in secluded lands that fit a certain theme and art style. The character became familiar with it and that design helped that player feel like it was their home. Stepping into the frontiers was a culture shock to many. Your enemies lands and character appearance was vastly different than your own. They were trying to kill you and take your land. They were laying seige to your keeps and attempting to take your relics. People don't generally like others coming into their 'home' and stealing their belongings. It's that sort of meaning in PvP and PvE that keeps people coming back.

Two, Ultima Online. While these two online games are vastly different, Zenimax needs to look at a big reason why (to piggyback the above) people feel as though they can call it a home. Public player housing. Being able to purchase and own a small piece of the world your character 'lives' in. Being able to decorate that home however you would like to and to show it off to your friends. In the last two installments of TES single player games, housing was a huge advantage to have. You wanted that house because it acted as your bank. You used that extra space to hold all of the riches you gathered from adventure and gathering. It was like a really large backpack, like a huge safety net, it was a 'home'. So many developers under-value the housing feature and often throw it aside for more PvP and PvE content.

Ultimately, making your players feel as though they have a home in your game world is a great weapon to have as a game company. A reason, meaning for, a home are all crucial to THIS player base. We aren't your typical ADD kids running around 'pew-pewing' everything in our mothers basemants. Zenimax needs to understand who their audience is.

Have they confirmed that they're using a p2p model :L possibly the worst move ever... Atm it doesn't sound as ground-breaking or impressive as GW2 which is b2p, why do they think we'd want to pay subs after that :L heck even Titan is gonna be b2p :/