Conclusion: It took me making 574 Iron Daggers for my Smithing skill to reach 100. This also means that it takes 574 Iron Ingots and Leather Strips as well.
Also, by the time I hit 100 I had leveled up to Level 17.
I did NOT have the Well Rested bonus for faster skill increase in effect. Also, I had the Lord Stone bonus. (I cheated and used the console to place one behind Breezehome in Whiterun.)
I started with a save I have at Level 1 in Whiterun and my Smithing skill was at 15. I used the console and gave myself 1000 Iron Ingots and 1000 Leather Strips. (Note I started the experiment out using Iron Ore and Wolf Pelts until I discovered that neither Tanning or Smelting increases your Smithing skill. I wanted to simulate someone who was using raw materials and turning them into craftable materials.) I only made Iron Daggers, and each time my Level increased, I stopped and wrote down how many Daggers it took to reach that level.
Here's the level breakdown. (Keep in mind that the early levels go up VERY quickly, and I used no other skills to level. Everything was 100% Smithing.)
Discuss!
For the number crunchers here's a chart to look at:
L=Player Level, SL=Skill Level, DM=Daggers Made (ie, L-2, SL-20, DM-12 means that when I hit Level 2 my Smithing skill was at 20 and I had made 12 Iron Daggers.)
L-2, SL-20, DM-12
L-3, SL-27, DM-30
L-4, SL-31, DM-43
L-5, SL-36, DM-58
L-6, SL-41, DM-78
L-7, SL-46, DM-99
L-8, SL-52, DM-129
L-9, SL-57, DM-158
L-10, SL-62, DM-189
L-11, SL-67, DM-225
L-12, SL-72, DM-264
L-13, SL-77, DM-308
L-14, SL-82, DM-357
L-15, SL-87, DM-410
L-16, SL-92, DM-469
L-17, SL-97, DM-532
L-17, SL-100, DM-574 (I stopped at 100, and hitting 100 did not put me over the hump to level 18.)