Since Zenimax has not yet added any reaction to what will happen if you steal an item in game, I thought I'd give my idea on it;
When you steal an item in-game, you will get a bounty (which means players will PvP against you) or be attacked by guard NPC's if they see you. When having a bounty, other players will gain extra XP when killing you. These can be from your own faction if you've your bounty is high. If not, you will be taken to a prison if the guards damage you to low health. Prison is basically like in Skyrim; you sleep and that's it. But here's the negative effects; you get a de-buff from questing experience in that area by 5%-, because of your bad reputation for 8 hours.