I personally can't say I'm surprised by this development as "Fail"com has a history of developing incomplete and poorly-made titles. Not to mention TSW did not have the staff, money, name recognition, or the marketing to build any sort of acceptable level of hype and anticipation for the title. Certainly SWTOR and GW2 did not help in matters as they both were highly-anticipated. I am, however, curious by the potential ramifications this game's failure could have and how it could impact future MMORPGs. With the recent disappointment of this game as well as SWTOR to compete with a subscription-based model, it makes the argument stronger that F2P is the direction to go and monthly fees are surely being obsoleted.
TSW was only able to sell 200,000 units, under-performing greatly, and will likely go F2P by next year. SWTOR had the most successful launch of an MMO to date selling nearly 2 million units. But due to lack of endgame content, poor management, and utter incompetence on BioWare's part, the game is slowly being picked apart and will be joining the already over-saturated list of F2P MMORPGs only 11 months after it's release. This does not bold well for the future of MMORPGs at all, as I still personally and firmly believe that monthly fees develop and maintain a better quality of MMORPG.
GW2 is one I would consider an exception to the rule as it is better than ones typical F2P MMORPG. Even still with all its hype and anticipation, it has currently only sold over 1 million units in pre-sales and we will have to see its developments later down the road. It certainly is a promising title, however, it does have shortcomings as all MMORPGs of this caliber due, and being F2P certainly won't help in its development and growth for the future. I am ever cautious of how the game will turn out from six months to a year down the line.
The only other MMORPG in the foreseeable future that will likely have a monthly fee and has the potential to succeed will be The Elder Scrolls Online. It not only has the name recognition with the fame of the Elder Scrolls IP, but it has the funding with $300 million dollars invested into developing the game and the studio, and it has a large world-class development team of over 250 employees who have been working on the game for the past five years. There is of course a chance their payment model could change with recent developments as it just seems monthly fees are no longer viable. I personally disagree with this sentiment and believe monthly fees are still viable. But success with a subscription-based model is hard to achieve as you really need a solid game with the capacity to reel in a wide audience of consumers and KEEP THEM HAPPY.
What are your thoughts on these recent developments? How do you think the disappointment of TSW and SWTOR could affect ESO? Without knowing what kind of payment model ESO will have (although if it was F2P ZOS likely would have already said that), it's hard to tell how the MMO industry could affects it's release in 2013. Do you believe subscription-based MMOs are a thing of the past like Sandbox MMOs? How should ESO respond in return if this is true? A lot of pressure is being placed on ESO and I am curious as a fan of TES and MMOs of how this will all turn out.