I've seen it happen in FO3 a lot. An NPC would be taking cover from behind a stack of sandbags, his head showing just above it. I shoot at his head from a distance (same height) and the bullet 'corrects' itself towards the torso, hitting the sandbags instead.
There's a good description on the http://fallout3nexus.com/downloads/file.php?id=5606 mod page for Fallout 3.
Details:
- As you may have noticed, FO3 aiming is weird...
- If you try to shoot a gun just over the tip of a rock you will normally hit the rock even if you were aiming over it
- This is because the bullet normally starts below the gun barrel
- Obviously this results in the crosshair and actual bullet path not lining up properly
- To combat this Bethesda introduced "bullet rise"
- This is all very well at short range but when you go above 30 meters this bullet rise completely ruins aiming
- I couldn't understand why my 0 spread weapon kept missing at long range
- Then I set the bullet speed very low, low enough that I could literally walk along side it in motion
- I tested it against a sign with a script attached to accurately measure distance
- This allows you to clearly see the effects of bullet rise
- Not only that but Bethesda added an aim bot which cannot be disabled (presumably for the console)
- Your bullets will always try to track the nearest enemy torso
- This means that if an enemy had their arm exposed but their torso was behind a wall and you tried to shoot the arm you would always miss at long range 100% guaranteed.
- This mod removes that auto aim so you can actually target the other body parts
Though I must say that I haven't seen New Vegas NPCs take cover a lot, they're still pretty suicidal.