Do I need to visit there once, THEN wait a period of time outside the cell then return once more to make them appear?
I thought the trick was just to not go there at all for at least 30 days.
Apparently, I am doing something in the wrong order.
They respawn every 3 In-game days.
You should probaly just adventurer away from the area for a while.
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Congratulations on your 20 years on Bandit spawning research... Here is your trophy!
As far as my experience with Helgen suggests, you must have completed Dragon Rising before any bandits spawn there. A few days after the attack by Alduin the fires go out, but the bandits don't spawn either outside or inside until you've completed Dragon Rising. At least, they haven't spawned there prior to that during my play-throughs.
I just took a quick look in the Creation Kit, and it seems like all you need is to have visited Whiterun at lest 4 days after escaping from Helgen. So I dunno what's going wrong there - I assume you have been to Whiterun?