I don't see that as necessarily following either. There is no player skill determining the success of speech, none to determine success in crafting, spells need to hit their target, but your success in casting them is skill dependent (whereas weapon swinging has no level requirements), pickpocketing is purely character skill based, etc. The only reason, I would argue, that TES seems to have a great deal of player skill involved is because it is a very combat heavy game. And since combat requires player skill for things like swinging a weapon and dodging attacks, that player skill is highly visible. Outside of combat, however, character skill is overwhelmingly more important.
So is there a double standard? I don't think so. People can prefer real time combat heavily dependent on player skill, while also preferring heavy character skill influence in other areas. Unless you're proposing all other skills would benefit from some sort of minigame dynamic (bring back the persuasion wheel?), there's no real issue that I can see.
I'm not arguing that you can't have different mechanics in the same game. I'm arguing that you can't, in a game that includes action/reflex mechanics, argue that it is
invalid to extend that principle to areas other than combat. That's not the same as saying that everything has to be done the same way, only that it's indefensible to tell someone they can't try.
I believe that it's not only possible to extend those mechanics to lockpicking but that, for a select group of players, that provides a superior RP experience to a mechanic that consists of a single 'activate' click. When I tell people this, they tell me I'm going to create a game that is 'less RPG' even though my experience tells me that it is 'more RPG' because it creates a stronger connection with my character in precisely the same way that RT combat creates a stronger connection with my character. The only way for someone who is 'pro rule' can argue this is to tell me that I am mistaken in my understanding of what a RPG is and that it has nothing to do with identifying with your character and that identifying with your character is bad role-playing and not why the genre was invented. Which from my perspective is just the opposite of the truth. These people have a rule that goes: "If this person makes a statement that conflicts with my own experience, then they are wrong and I am right." I have a rule that goes: "If this person makes a statement that conflicts with my own experience, then they have had a different experience than I have and that's worth investigating."
As far as the persuasion mini-game goes that's something entirely different. The rotating disc mini-game in Oblivion was in no-way a good anologue for persuasion. A good anologue would be dynamically generated response options in dialogue. If you make all of your conversational checks based on your Speech skill and eliminate player subversion then your dialogue would be something like this:
An NPC says: "No, I'm not going to give slyme his sweetroll."
At Speech 15, here are your choices:
[Persuade] "Well, I think you should because it's not nice to steal people's stuff."
[Intimidate] "You better or you're going to be sorry, mister!"
Since the check has been predetermined by the player's skill (minimum Speech of 30 to pass, flat, just like our skill-based lockpicking), the only options that are available are douchy and the NPC is naturally going to reject them.
At Speech 50, here are your choices:
[Persuade]: "Listen, I know that you're angry at slyme because he doesn't agree with your definition of what constitutes an RPG, but that's no reason to steal his roll. I'm sure we can find a civilized way to resolve your differences."
[Intimidate]: "I don't think you understand. I kill people for a living. It's what I'm good at. What makes you think I'm going to mind hurting you and your loved ones?"
Since the check has been predetermined by the player's skill, the only options that are available are obviously (?) effective and the NPC is naturally going to accept either one.
Engaging someone in dialogue with the intent to persuade them and seeing that your only persuasion lines are obviously douchy is equivalent to receiving the "You need a lockpick skill of 50 to open this lock" message that pops up on your screen when your character lacks the skill to pick a lock. The game is giving you obvious feedback that you can't possibly succeed at the task.
I'd rather have a system that doesn't need to communicate my failure to me immediately in the form of an on-screen prompt but instead allows me to attempt something, even if the chance of success is very small. If the lockpicking mini-game is very difficult to complete with a skill of 15 (you have a 20% chance to pick a novice lock, for example) then my actively attempting to pick the lock and failing several times in a row does a better job engaging me without abandoning the character > player mechanic. My immersion hasn't been broken by an announcement from the game telling me about a mechanic. The trade off results in a net win for me and people like me. And for people who svck at the game or don't like it, you can just put back the 'auto-pick' button.
Yes, that robot boxing title would be an RPG. Just as dungeon crawlers without any dialogue and the barest hint of a story can be RPGs. Just as a game that is only dialogue and narrative without any combat can be an RPG. Whether you navigate linear corridors or open worlds, it doesn't matter. Those things are only extras that enable certain playstyles. They aren't essential to what is or isn't a role playing game.
Well, the robot boxing title wouldn't feel like an RPG to me just because it had a couple of RPG elements. Your word against mine, I guess. And the dungeon crawler game you describe includes at least two additional RPG elements that the robot boxing title lacks: exploration and looting (I presume you're allowing them to loot), so obviously a lot more people are going to be inclined to include it. Diablo has more RPG elements than your dungeon-crawler example and lots of people refuse to include it in the genre.
A lot of people would also disqualify your 'only dialogue and narrative' game example as well and classify that as interactive fiction. For me, it would depend on how much freedom and complexity the game provides. If I can define my own character and choose my own path and it includes enough secondary elements (eg. exploration, simulation, etc.) to sustain role-playing over a significant period of time, I'd count that as an RPG too. But then again, in my opinion, there are no 'sacred cow' mechanics when it comes to RPGs.
They are the only features that set it apart, is the point. Without them, you're just playing an action game. A deep, complex action game with a branching narrative, but still an action game. That's why character skill is essential whereas the finer points of the simulation are not. The latter only makes something a better game, not just a better RPG.
To me, this statement seems to contradict your previous one about the dialogue only RPG. Why isn't that a 'deep, complex interactive fiction with a branching narrative"? Why should a couple of mechanics differentiate it from an otherwise identical experience? Specific mechanics aren't required. They are common. As long as there are enough other mechanics in place to sustain the illusion who cares if one or two specific mechanics are there or not? If you don't have access to the mechanics (as in my first thought experiment), you're playing a game of Schroedinger's cat: the game only becomes an RPG when you open the box and see what's inside. Frankly, that's just silly. "Well, what do you know, this game I've been playing for hundreds of hours as an RPG isn't really an RPG after all. There's no character > player mechanic!"
What about my CoD example? Isn't that at least as deep and complex as your dialogue only example? If you didn't know that it relied only on player skill but had been told that your skills were determined by the occupation you chose and the weapon specializations you picked and you played it for 300 hours, RPing merrily the whole time would you feel cheated when you found out it was 'all just your own skill'? Are you suddenly wrong about your previous experience? Were you just deluding yourself for 300 hours? Are you really going to invalidate 300 hours of your life just to support an intellectual construct: RPGs are games that have x, y, and z mechanics?
I don't have to worry about that problem. I don't have to invalidate other people's experiences. I just accept that when they tell me they were RPing, they really were RPing. The game had enough of whatever it takes to support that experience for them. Even if they're just being cynical and lying about it, if 100 people tell me that they really did have a good RP experience from a game am I going to tell them that they're all just cynical liars because one of them really was just a cynical liar? This just borders on conspiracy theory. One or two people might be so confused about the concept of RP that they do, in fact, misattribute their own experience to something else. If the game sells 10 million copies and 8 million of them call it a RPG are they all wrong? I shouldn't even need to make a case for it. It's obviously silly. It's far easier to take Occam's razor and say that a handful of RPG fundamentalists are just being overly pedantic.