» Tue Jun 05, 2012 3:01 pm
While you're told the attack will be the following night it actually occurs the next time you go to the marketplace, regardless of what time of day you go there. It does this because the trigger used to cause the attack checks whether or not you entered the trigger volume (basically a large invisible box) around the Windhelm marketplace, but does not also check the time of day.
it also doesn't matter if you walk around or not; I usually stand still near the smelter for a little while, and then the killer shows up, checks the lay of the land, and then attempts to strike, at which point I intervene. If you wish to prevent the killing, do not attack the killer before he makes his move; he is essential until that point, and you'll get a major bounty for attempted murder.