Try giving the player an OnHit event, so that it fires when the player gets hit.
One of the parameters is a bool to tell if the attack was blocked. If it was blocked, roll the dice.
If the roll passes, the event parameters give you a reference to the aggressor and the form used to attack. If the aggressor is an actor and the form is a weapon, you can use that to remove the weapon from the actor. Maybe add a bit of havok impulse to send it flying.
Might also be worth looking at the disarm shout to see that works