Which one is most likely to be made canon?

Independent Vegas is probably the favored ending.

Pretty sure NCR taking over is the default ending. Since it is the least hopeful one.

Fallout ending tend to favor the status quo, as opposed to dramatic change that makes the world (possibly) a better place.

This game would disagree. The status quo used to be with Enclave having a presence. They're all but destroyed now.

Enclave got replaced by NCR - which is another military power with no regards for the little guy. It is one oppressor replacing another oppressor. The NCR even kicked out the Followers of Apoc... who are pretty much doctors without boarders!

War, War never changes.

To go with the Wild Card ending (or House's Ending) there is too much hope. It is a dramatic change from the desperate need to survive at any cost, and shifting to some sort of pursuit for Utopian vision (with House) or Independence from Oppression of Outside Force (via Wild Card).

But I did end the game with Good Karma, maybe Bad Karma ending will be darker.

I doubt Houses ending will be canon. I'm placing my bets on the Wild Card , no pun intended. But it doesn't matter to me because I'm doing all the endings!

i think ncr's will be because they open for a new game with the fact it seems to lead to the spread of ncr to the east

ncr,bos,and enclave vs bos east (i would like to see how this turns out)

the devs are keeping a close eye on the steam stats, to see quote "what the correct ending is". So I guess that the ending that most people play will end up being the base for future stuff. At the moment, it's Yes-Man/Wild Card. Which doesn't surprise me, as that's what I played too

I would assume that the NCR ending is cannon since The LEgion is Evil, Mr. House is a dictator who only cares about new vegas and fails to see the larger picture and Independence always leads to eventual chaos and anarchy. NCR is the only faction that offers some semblance of unity that isn't evil. Also i find it funny how everyone says NCR doesn't care about every single town thus they are evil. It seems that most people here dont know how a government works, its not that they dont care its that they dont have time to care since there far to busy trying to keep their new nation togeather.

On another note the Followers getting kicked out is a bug from what i hear supposedly there is a way to get a ending to where the NCR lets them stay but the requirements for it are bugged.

I doubt they'll choose solely based on Steam stats, and it would be a mistake if they do. That's not because I favor the NCR or House endings as canon, but rather because more people will likely choose the Wild Card ending because it's the only one where the courier doesn't act as a patsy (if a powerful, well-rewarded one) all the way to the end. It's not because the Wild Card plot line creates the most compelling story of the four.

NCR winning probably has an 80% chance to become canon. Bad guys can always be created, and a Legion victory would wipe out New Vegas, so it won't be them. I don't know what happens to the courier if House wins, but I assume he would take his indie Vegas and make it even more indie, which just continues the standoff between him and NCR. However, the way he talks about a rapid evolution in technology with everything Vegas-related under his control could be compelling, so this probably has a 10% chance. Yes Man runs his Securitrons around stopping the chaos, which normally isn't interesting, but he does talk about becoming more assertive; give this one a 10% chance as well (though if they ever release post-Dam DLC, they might handle this possibility there). NCR winning, on the other hand, continues the progress of the Wasteland's lone stable government, gives several other factions a major power to work with or against, and the issues brewing in their government now will probably lead to some sort of breakdown that could fracture the NCR either before or during the next FO game, leading to the creation of brand new factions.

Some of those things could happen with a House/Wild Card finish. But with the Dam lost, the NCR would have to fall back, which means it would most likely either work to consolidate its power in California, rupture, or move north. If the next FO game takes place in some other location, like Chicago, then any of these things can happen and it won't matter. But if the setting remains out west, the first two possibilities will be a creative backslide, while a move north could work, although it would probably best be handled by treating the NCR as a peripheral player to the story. For these reasons, it's hardly a given that NCR will win. But given the future possibilities inherent in an NCR victory, they probably will.

Very well thought out! I agree with you on everything you said.

The NCR ending is the most "rational" of the outcomes. Not to mention it's the only "positive" outcome that would/could effect more than just New Vegas (Assuming the NCR follows the legion east to further eradicate them, etc). Yes-Man/House are only powerful in New Vegas, and have limited ranges (they can only broadcast from the Lucky 38), The Legion is "evil", but honestly, I wouldn't put them out of the cannon just yet (I mean, apparently they've done .. SOMETHING in the east.. I wanna know what that is all about) but I highly doubt they'll make the legion securing the dam and thrusting all of new vegas into a war/slave mongering monarchy.

That leaves the NCR as the only logical story progression. The NCR brings hope of democracy, organization, and government to the US wastelands, but eventually, they are going to have to change their name, as "New CALIFORNIA Republic" doesn't exactly work if they govern over the whole US. I'm thinking "New United States" Or "NUS" lol.

Its simple realy.. it doesnt matter.

This is about as far forward in time fallout will likely ever get as the farther forward time goes the less interesting the setting gets.

I think fallout 4 and 5 will be from before fallout 1.

Because as they already say this is already going beyond post apocalypse and into post post apocalyse and that isnt where fallout realy has its heart.

Or it remains the NCR on the basis of each state being treated as a province or county within the Republic. Thus, once it spreads coast-to-coast, the entire land will become California.

I bet someone from Alabama just thought about that and [censored] themselves.

It's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure there's enough to make a game out of pre-FO1 territory. That game introduced many of the current important factions in their infancy, when their futures were still in doubt. Pre-FO1, they wouldn't exist, so it would be about a lone wanderer exploring a nearly-desolate expanse of territory. Given what we've come to expect out of the last two iterations, I doubt they could do enough with it.

What's considerably more likely is that they shift the setting. Remember, there's an entire country (and, for that matter, world) that went up in a nuclear holocaust, and all we've explored is California, parts of Oregon and Nevada, and the area around Washington, D.C. (A bit of the Midwest, too, if you include Tactics.) We've touched on Pennsylvania (The Pitt) and heard about Arizona and New Mexico in this one. The notion of a Brotherhood base in Chicago is something around which much could be crafted, and as I mentioned a game focused on areas the NCR is just beginning to touch, as opposed to having a foothold like in this one, is very plausible as well.

The only "post-post-apocalypse" areas are those governed by the NCR, and in theory the area around D.C.'s water purifier. As long as NCR only controls a small part of the old U.S., there's much that can be done that retains the real Wasteland feel.

I was thinking around the Southeastern US. Or maybe some where that would have been nuked but is so cut off from the west of the world none of the current factions are present, AKA Hawaii. Major military bases and several island with vastly different terrains available and chances are they have been completely cut off since the war

Lets not forget the possibility of setting shakeups. We're dealing with a world where even the derelict cars have nuclear reactors capable of exploding violently. All it takes is one guy.

The activated GECKs in the West will mean nothing if they get hit by a leftover bomb. Or the water purifier in DC could get struck.

So far they have only covered the two coasts. There is a lot of territory in-between, from Minneapolis and Detroit down to Texas and east from there to Georgia and Florida. So the next Fallouts could be "concurrent", if you will, set about the same time as any of the others. Possibly even with many new factions.

NCR victory proves the most boring prospect for a future game set in the region, so I hope it won't be that one.

None, hopefully.

Hopefully in FO4 we'll actually see a NEW location with NEW factions as opposed to a new location with factions transplanted from another area (Enclave AND BoS on the East coast? Really?).

You don't even have to address a canon ending if you move it somewhere else, hell it could even take place 50 or even 100 years earlier.

Neither are prominent factions. Hell, I haven't seen a single sign the Enclave are even in FO:NV yet. In-game, that is. I know they are.

I don't see wild card as necessarily positive, given what yes man says just before the closing cut-scenes

Just like the end of FO3 had very little impact on NV, the next FO will most likely be independent. I would love to see them go back to Chicago, as it has it's own BOS independent offshoot, the intelligent deathclaws, and room for tons of new factions. The midwest is a bit of a clean slate as it was never completely canon, but has enough existing story to start some cool plot lines.