» Sun May 29, 2011 2:05 am
As must of you knows, I live in Nigeria and work in the oil and gas exploration. The price of one liter here is around 0.4$/l i.e. 1.5$ per gallon. Cool...
There are 2 reasons while the prices are like that:
1/ The short terms trends: the price of oil is strongly fluctuating depending on wars, unrest and any problems. With the current arab revolution in Libya and other Middle East country, the prices are strongly affected. However, this is the indirect consequence of the second reason
2/ The spare capacity. Here there are a lot to say. The spare capacity is the difference between what is theoretically possible to produce (the world capacity) and the world demand. With time, the spare capacity has been shrinking. In 1970, the world demand was around 46-48 millions bbls/day and the world capacity around 53 millions bbls/day. Today we are producing around 84 millions bbls/day and we could produce up to 90-92 millions. In %, our spare capacity has reduced from 12% to a meagre 8%. This means less margin for the prices.
If Libya stops producing, there is 3 millions bbls less on the market. So immediatly, the prices are jumping.
Now, the next question will be: why do we have less spare capacity ? The answers are numerous.
The first might be because we have passed the time of the easy oil discovery. Now, we need to look for oil in the arctic, in the deep offshore, in the tight reservoir, with unconventionnal reserves such as tar sands or oil shales.
The replacement ratio is an important indicator in the oil and gas exploration. It shows how many barrels the companies are discovering per barrels produced.
It has dropped dramatically. In 2000 for the 26 largest oil companies, it was around 150%. For 1 barrel produced, they discovered 1.5 barrels. In 2008, it was around 75%. For 1 barrel produced, it was found 0.75 barrels. Why ? Because we might have reached the famous peak oil.
There might be also another reason. Before 1975, the first oil shock, the international oil companies were dominating the market. The strategy of such companies (like Shell, BP, Chevron, Mobil, ENI, Total, Oxy, Anadarko, Tullow etc...) is to make profit quickly for their shareholders. Thus they have a strategy clearly oriented toward production. However, following the 1975 events in Middle East, a wave of nationalisation occured.
Now, the national oil companies are dominating the market. They have a totally different objective. They want to develop the assets of their countries on a sustainable manner in order for the citizens to enjoy long term revenue. In addition, as governement bodies, they are very strongly process driven. Slow, paper-work, long decision time, political influences etc... I work with them every day and I can tell you, they are sometimes a bit annoying, to use an understatement.
So the situation is now the following:
Super majors (Exxon, BP, Mobil, Total, Shell) have 3% of the reserves and produce 12% of the oil
Other private companies have 25% of the reserves and produce 36% of the oil
National oil companies (governements) have 72% of the reserves but produce only 52% of the oil
This might explain why there is this decrease in the spare capacity. Now, are they doing this purposely or not ? I think there is a mix of it. I do not underestimate the capacity of governement companies to be inefficient. This is my small stones to answer your question.