There is always a chance for an mmo to flop but TES has a great built in audience and frankly, the story just screams mmo. If they do a decent job i'd imagine it to be quite successful as long as they avoid the WOW model. I've always hated the lack of challenge in TES games and how quickly you can become invincible. This will be avoided in an mmo and allow us to truly experience the game the way it was meant to be played.
I also think the fact that they can modify classes or abilities relatively quickly by patching it will be an enormous advantage over having to wait for a dlc to come out.