well seeing as how you're wearing all light armor and your shield is heavy im going to assume that you are using light armor as a main skill and you have the perk in light armor that gives you a defense bonus (25% i think) when wearing all light armor, and since you put on the heavy armor shield it takes that bonus away ultimately lowering your armor rating.
Im sure thats the problem.
Get a light armor shield and i bet your armor rating will increase instead of dropping.