.... he openly mentioned the file size as something that should not be the cause of any problems.
Well, he's either sorely misguided or flat-out lying. That 16 mb save file of mine I mentioned above? I also have a file from before it that's just slightly smaller. In the slightly smaller save file, I can still enter Understone Keep (it takes a hell of a long time to load, but I can still get in).
The only thing I did between that earlier save and the later one was discover a new location on the map. But simply discovering t hat location and wandering around a new area increased my save file. It was at that point Understone Keep decided it didn't want to load for me anymore. That isn't the only place, either. There's also a dwarven dungeon (the name escapes me) that refused to let me in without freezing up too. Probably more, but at that point I thought it was pointless to continue.
I've reloaded that earlier save multiple times and kept getting the same result. Understone Keep is accessible until I do something that makes my save file bigger, at which point it locks up on me.