Interesting enough, I started an new character, played for perhaps 25 hours and level 25, I did not touch the dawnguard storyline at all. The main quest until killing the dragon at the watchtower. Main focus was the thief guild. Lots of travelig to cities to steal but also long trips through the wilderness. No sign of vampires.
Granted I used an mod who prevent vampire attacks in cities but it was plenty of them in the wilderness during my last game also a lot of wanderers in cities.
This makes me wonder if it's an trigger to start the vampires?
Well, that character of mine is now level 30, with no intentional grinding, and he's been getting around the place a lot..I've had 2 scripted dragon encounters, 1 random, 1 random Thalmor encounter, absolutely no vampires (apart from one solitary town raid that crashed which I think I mentioned), and seen no legion vs stormcloak fights. I've had plenty of assassin encounters, and random thug encounters, and my roads are littered with dead drug dealers. But as I said, NO vampires and only one random dragon.
I'm seriously beginning to think that the first trip to fort DG is the trigger event, despite what a lot of people are saying.