If you want to save $, consider the GTX460.
That's the one I've been looking into that model as well. There are GTX460s on newegg for $150-170, depending on the maker, factory OC, and warranty. The 560 is a bit better, but it'll be obsolescent not too much longer after the 460 is, so I can't justify the price difference.
Right now I have a GT220, which is clearly outclassed by the current middle range graphic cards.
However, I played The Witcher 2 twice through on medium-low settings (medium most of the game, lower on the Kayran and "Ghost Battlefield" parts) without too much trouble (was sluggish in parts) with the GT220. And both times were prior to the 2.0 patch. TW2 still looked better than anything I'd ever seen, even with this old card.
The (minimum) recommendations for both Skyrim and Witcher 2 are very close, so I figure I can run Skyrim at least a smidge above "lowest" at least. Maybe a little more than a smidge, given the differences in the two games' development philosophy (open vs. narrower; play perspective; high diversity vs. high detail; console-driven vs. pc-driven design) seem to me to mean the Witcher 2 may be more demanding in terms of hardware.
So while I'll be looking to upgrade very soon, I'm not terribly worried about the requirements. I'm not an overclockin' GPU whiz, so YMMV and opinions are like uh... mudcrabs.
Edit:
My current system:
CPU 9150e Quad Core (1.8 Ghz)
GPU GT 220 1GB
OS VISTA 64
RAM 4GB
