Singularity Draws Nigh on the Horizon

Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:45 pm

S. R. K. Branavan and David Silver of University College London have programmed a computer to study the manual for Civ5 and now it wins 79% of all its matches against human opponents!

While I welcome what this portents for future enemy A.I. routines in games, I am a bit worried about the prospect of computers becoming self-aware.

Is this surprising? Do you think this will result in better A.I. in games?

Did we just take a small step closer to the singularity?


Spoiler
Computers are great at treating words as data: Word-processing programs let you rearrange and format text however you like, and search engines can quickly find a word anywhere on the Web. But what would it mean for a computer to actually understand the meaning of a sentence written in ordinary English — or French, or Urdu, or Mandarin?

One test might be whether the computer could anolyze and follow a set of instructions for an unfamiliar task. And indeed, in the last few years, researchers at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab have begun designing machine-learning systems that do exactly that, with surprisingly good results.

In 2009, at the annual meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), researchers in the lab of Regina Barzilay, associate professor of computer science and electrical engineering, took the best-paper award for a system that generated scripts for installing a piece of software on a Windows computer by reviewing instructions posted on Microsoft’s help site. At this year’s ACL meeting, Barzilay, her graduate student S. R. K. Branavan and David Silver of University College London applied a similar approach to a more complicated problem: learning to play “Civilization,” a computer game in which the player guides the development of a city into an empire across centuries of human history. When the researchers augmented a machine-learning system so that it could use a player’s manual to guide the development of a game-playing strategy, its rate of victory jumped from 46 percent to 79 percent.

Starting from scratch

“Games are used as a test bed for artificial-intelligence techniques simply because of their complexity,” says Branavan, who was first author on both ACL papers. “Every action that you take in the game doesn’t have a predetermined outcome, because the game or the opponent can randomly react to what you do. So you need a technique that can handle very complex scenarios that react in potentially random ways.”

Moreover, Barzilay says, game manuals have “very open text. They don’t tell you how to win. They just give you very general advice and suggestions, and you have to figure out a lot of other things on your own.” Relative to an application like the software-installing program, Branavan explains, games are “another step closer to the real world.”

The extraordinary thing about Barzilay and Branavan’s system is that it begins with virtually no prior knowledge about the task it’s intended to perform or the language in which the instructions are written. It has a list of actions it can take, like right-clicks or left-clicks, or moving the cursor; it has access to the information displayed on-screen; and it has some way of gauging its success, like whether the software has been installed or whether it wins the game. But it doesn’t know what actions correspond to what words in the instruction set, and it doesn’t know what the objects in the game world represent.

So initially, its behavior is almost totally random. But as it takes various actions, different words appear on screen, and it can look for instances of those words in the instruction set. It can also search the surrounding text for associated words, and develop hypotheses about what actions those words correspond to. Hypotheses that consistently lead to good results are given greater credence, while those that consistently lead to bad results are discarded.

Proof of concept

In the case of software installation, the system was able to reproduce 80 percent of the steps that a human reading the same instructions would execute. In the case of the computer game, it won 79 percent of the games it played, while a version that didn't rely on the written instructions won only 46 percent. The researchers also tested a more-sophisticated machine-learning algorithm that eschewed textual input but used additional techniques to improve its performance. Even that algorithm won only 62 percent of its games.

“If you’d asked me beforehand if I thought we could do this yet, I’d have said no,” says Eugene Charniak, University Professor of Computer Science at Brown University. “You are building something where you have very little information about the domain, but you get clues from the domain itself.”

Charniak points out that when the MIT researchers presented their work at the ACL meeting, some members of the audience argued that more sophisticated machine-learning systems would have performed better than the ones to which the researchers compared their system. But, Charniak adds, “it’s not completely clear to me that that’s really relevant. Who cares? The important point is that this was able to extract useful information from the manual, and that’s what we care about.”

Most computer games as complex as “Civilization” include algorithms that allow players to play against the computer, rather than against other people; the games’ programmers have to develop the strategies for the computer to follow and write the code that executes them. Barzilay and Branavan say that, in the near term, their system could make that job much easier, automatically creating algorithms that perform better than the hand-designed ones.

But the main purpose of the project, which was supported by the National Science Foundation, was to demonstrate that computer systems that learn the meanings of words through exploratory interaction with their environments are a promising subject for further research. And indeed, Barzilay and her students have begun to adapt their meaning-inferring algorithms to work with robotic systems.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/language-from-games-0712.html

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Solène We
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:15 am

As long as they don't call it Skynet.
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Kara Payne
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 4:16 pm

Like keeping it away from How to be Human manual?...
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Chris Duncan
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:26 pm

I hope it dosent find out about the terminator films and get ideas...
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marina
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:00 am

What happens if they let it read the Bible or some religious text?
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Adam Baumgartner
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:52 pm

What happens if they let it read the Bible or some religious text?

And God created computers in his own image.
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Catharine Krupinski
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:09 pm

No! You maniacs! Not only are you making AIs too smart for our own good, but you're training them in the art of global domination. Soon, AI will grow so advanced, it will overthrow and enslave humanity and take over the world! Our only choice is to train an equally mighty army of damn dirty apes and have them go to war against the robots. Only by manipulating the two sides in the shadows will we have a chance to survive!
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RAww DInsaww
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 10:09 pm

I think we must prevent that computer from reading Descartes at all costs
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JaNnatul Naimah
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 6:53 am

Sounds like the plot to http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086567/
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Sophie Miller
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:12 pm

Maybe the solution is to write crappy manuals - let it start trying to assemble some Ikea furniture for us.
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Samantha Wood
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 4:22 pm

http://blogs.discovery.com/.a/6a00d8341bf67c53ef0147e2a2c381970b-800wi
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Laura Cartwright
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:58 pm

Like keeping it away from How to be Human manual?...

Or unplugging the damn bastard
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Astargoth Rockin' Design
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:30 pm

Let it read the morrowind manual. I wanna see how that goes.
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Kelly James
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:47 pm

Maybe the solution is to write crappy manuals ...

Ubisoft is miles ahead of you on that one.
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Rob Smith
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:06 am

All kidding aside, computers cannot be self aware. The fact still remains, a human has to tell a computer what is it the 0s and 1s mean.

As a coder myself, I do appreciate the work those folks are doing and understand the complexity, time, and physical pain :) writing such code entails; and I am sure they are many IQ points above me, but still, this is not a case in which the computer "thinks for itself". At the core, it is a computer programmed with a set of functions and variables which in turn allows the computer to choose among many choices, "rate" them, and use those "ratings" in future decisions.
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aisha jamil
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:34 am

What happens if they let it read the Bible or some religious text?

It will learn how to play Bible Adventures.
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Portions
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 4:07 pm

I just took a look at the manual (available on the steam-store page for the game), that is certainly one of the most extensive manuals for a game I've ever seen. As there are gamers that don't read manuals (or are put off by the over 200 pages of manual this particular game has), I think it's a bit less of an achievement to win against a human opponent.

On second look through, that's no manual, that's a complete database detailing absolutely everything in the game (I like it!).
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Love iz not
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:12 pm

As long as it is never named HAL, everything will be okay.
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Emilie Joseph
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:39 pm

All kidding aside, computers cannot be self aware. The fact still remains, a human has to tell a computer what is it the 0s and 1s mean.


Can you elaborate on this?

are you certain no computer can ever be made that would become self aware?

In the case of the University College London study, the programmers developed a code for this computer to learn from reading the manual (in English) and it made its own determinations about how to adjust its strategy, rather than a human changing the code after reading the manual himself.
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Kelsey Anna Farley
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:56 am

All kidding aside, computers cannot be self aware. The fact still remains, a human has to tell a computer what is it the 0s and 1s mean.

As a coder myself, I do appreciate the work those folks are doing and understand the complexity, time, and physical pain :) writing such code entails; and I am sure they are many IQ points above me, but still, this is not a case in which the computer "thinks for itself". At the core, it is a computer programmed with a set of functions and variables which in turn allows the computer to choose among many choices, "rate" them, and use those "ratings" in future decisions.

So it's not so much the computer becoming self-aware and destroying humanity, as much as it is rating "Destroy all Humans" the best possible choice given its programming?

Frankly, that's even more terrifying...
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stephanie eastwood
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 10:20 am

Ya, i read about this yeaterday!

They basically taught it to read nay.. understand english. Im not sure what it speaks to in ternms of situational conizence. the rulebook gives an example of pretty much every situation that could take place in game. I am not sure it would do as well in a situation where there was no equivalent .....

I do agree though, that it could easily be used to military typesof applications... made me think of the movie war games
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Jamie Moysey
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:52 pm

Ya, i read about this yeaterday!

They basically taught it to read nay.. understand english. Im not sure what it speaks to in ternms of situational conizence. the rulebook gives an example of pretty much every situation that could take place in game. I am not sure it would do as well in a situation where there was no equivalent .....

I do agree though, that it could easily be used to military typesof applications... made me think of the movie war games

Yeah, they gave some computers manuals for installing software and for playing games. The computer that was trying to install software got it 80% done without help, meanwhile the computer playing the Civ game won 79% of the time.

It was also Civilization II not V.
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electro_fantics
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:48 am

It was also Civilization II not V.


Interesting - I wasn't aware of that.

i think Civ5 would be more difficult for A.I. because of the one-unit-per-tile rule.
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Sandeep Khatkar
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 10:08 pm

Make it read Das Kapital. It'll terminate itself through sheer boredom.
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electro_fantics
 
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Post » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:00 am

I'm not surprised, and I am also very, very worried about computers becoming self aware, and I shouldn't need to explain why.

I blame the Japanese!! :swear:
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George PUluse
 
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