Well when CK will be released there will be possibility make mod thats will add Skill requirements to locks thats will apply
Before lockpicking minigame start e.g to try pick something you need know structure of lock first, otherwise you can spend some amount of lockpics to try discovery structure of lock and try open lock one level above your skill
Agility + Luck check can be useful there to determine how much picks will be broken for testing purposes, since not only skills determine you character there is no attributes perhaps we can use perks for this check.
How about this formula:
0-24 skill points: Novice level Very Easy Lock or try pick Easy Lock25-49 skill points: Apprentice level Easy Lock or try pick Average Lock50-74 skill points: Journeyman level Average Lock or try pick Hard Lock75-99 skill points: Expert level Hard Lock or try pick Very Hard Lock100 skill points: Master level Very Hard Lock or try pick Need Key Lock
Additionally nice to add Traps and Alarms to locks above easy, what can be triggered if Character will fail check or broke his lockpick one or few times.
Effect of traps can vary from poisons thats paralyze, drain health, stun magicka and silence, explode with elemental damage as rune spell, summon hostile enemies, create loud alarm noise thats attract enemies to locked container position.
Another addition is ability bash lock with weapon and use weapon weight+strike damage versus lock level,
open lock with Open spell thats require both hands to be charged and drain magicka in proportion to lock level
Door bash shout thats is addition effect to Unrelenting Force at full charge
All this options are loud and unstealth almost always trigger traps and alarms so lockpickig still will have advantage over them.
Hope Creation Kit release is close.