The Thalmor can't take Skyrim in the next years, the terrain is horrible for a full scale war and they pretty much know that the Nords, beeing the thickheaded brutes they can be, will wreck them if they attack. Needless to say that the Thalmor won't get past Hammerfell or High Rock anyway, since the Redguards... well they are the Redguards and the Bretons don't have anything else to do besides killing each other anyway and therefore have very good training in warfare.
The Imperials on the other side got wrecked up the most during the Great War and are share a common border with the Aldmeri Dominion (Valenwood and maybe Elsweyr). If the Thalmor want to eradicate humanity, they have to start with Cyrodiil, and Skyrim under Imperial banner would make things so much more difficult.
Problem is, they can't really allow the Stormcloaks to win either since Skyrim itself will be even more dangerous if Ulfric wins. It's not really great to have some of the toughest human warriors, besides the Redbadasses of course. It's even worse if the leader of said humans is the one guy you used to torture when he was young and he basically feeds of the general elf hatred that's been around in Skyrim since the first men were slaughtered by the Falmer. That's why the Thalmor want an ungoing war.





). but i don't think he deny that there are no influensess at all just pointing out there may be some things that are different
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