Lets see...
- Game difficulty changes (like FWE, FOOK)
- New guns/gun mods.
- Many beauty related things. (new hair, body, etc)
- Unofficial patches
- A few very small quest mods
- And of course hundreds (if not a few thousand) really small, rather pointless (to most) mods that add random things
+1
I think you have it pretty close buddy.

I would say initially too we will see ALOT of gun/ammo/crafting mods, as the new interfaces and ability to change these will spawn 1000 variants. I GECKulate that weapon/ammo/crafting mods will very popular and numerous. I think some cool cooking mods will come around, and probably an extension of that into something close to full Oblivion-style alchemy.
In the first 6 months they will all be small, tweak-like mods. The big overhauls won't start to appear on the scene for many months as they are very game-specific (one could not port FWE, MMM or FOOK to FNV without alot of work and without stripping-out alot of Fo3-specific content). I rather think these will get built-up again for FNV just as they were for Fo3.
There are some mods that are getting converted from Fo3, so I think we will have alot more mature modding content for FNV alot faster than we saw with Fo3 where everything was created from scratch.
Can't wait! Now that I know gamestop is doing midnight pre-order releases, I plan to do my first-ever late-night-game-run. :fallout: