I am also a pessimist by nature. Still I do have some hope that Bethesda will learn. I'll be sick to my stomach until the day when I learn if I was right to have hope in Bethesda or not.
I don't know what this forum was like when Fallout 3 was being made. If there were alot of Original Fans of Fallout around or was it all just people that knew nothing of Fallout whichc caused Bethesda to not care so much about lore. Seeing as how so many people are fans of the originals as well as Fallout 3 and New Vegas; I am hoping Bethesda will make a great Fallout game. Not just a great Fallout like game.
Why else did they ask Obsidian to make a Fallout? Out of all the game makers out there, why go with a company staffed by Devs that worked on the Original Fallouts? I see that as the Devs of Bethesda wanting to learn how its done.
I too have hope still left. Otherwise I'd not be here. I guess the 14 year waiting does its thing. Although, I've lost a certain sense of caring after the recent 2 titles (mainly because Beth cannot into indepth games like Fallout, and because Obsidian won't get a free go on the franchise anymore). I am, at times even overly, critic about what Fallout has become, but I'm not without praise (as you've probably seen in other threads). The whole thing just is like turning my applecinnamonpudding into an orangecinnamonpudding, I know you understand as (as you've stated yourself iirc) you've gone through the same. I'm not really troubled by the new implementation, but the realization of it.
If you were here when Fallout 3 was being made, judgin by your stance now and the ideals/statements that I've seen - you'd have been with the new comers within the forumites (as wa I), up until more correct info came out, and eventually when the game came out. Trust me. I was originally one of the defenders when I honestly believed the game would be different from Oblivion -- but was slowly turned into what I am now.

Obsidian as a so sudden choice seems like a fanservice more than anything else. I, of course, cannot know but that's how it seems. A way to silence the "old fans" with the sheer wrtiting power of Obsidian. But they disregarded the gameplay mechanics as one of the major criticism for their game - a relfection, which reflected to NV despite the tries to correct it (and even with the same tech). Sidenote: It is pretty clear that Obs is better at technicalities, because they turned a doomed to fail system into a somewhat tolerable RPG mechanic in just a year and a half. And more over, they continue to tweak it for the players benefit--- Sawyer is doing that stuff at his leisuretime for christs sake (how the latest patch was basically formed) --- when have you seen Todd do that?

I'd have more to write, but it'll come later....