» Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:00 pm
Hello,
This Microsoft funded delay of the Dawnguard DLC has upset me too. Bethesda is currently giving their fans the silent treatment and there's a bunch of anger floating around on the internet, but I have yet to see a compilation of data showing how long we have had to wait to see Bethesda DLC appear on the other platforms relative to the early microsoft release days. Therefore I have signed up on these forums and compiled the data myself to post for everyones ease of access. I started out by just looking up DLC release dates for oblivion, fallout 3, and fallout NV on the games corresponding wiki's (im doing this on my friday night, and I'm not going to go hunting through past game articles looking for official information). So, here's the raw data:
-----------------------------------xbox.date-----ps3.date-----pc.date
oblivion: Shivering Isles***------------3/26/2007-----10/16/2007---5/27/2007
f3: operation anchorage-------------1/27/2009---10/1/2009---1/27/2009
f3: The Pitt--------------------3/24/2009---10/1/2009---3/24/2009
f3: Broken Steel--------------5/5/2009 ---9/24/2009----5/5/2009
f3: Point Lookout------------6/23/2009---10/8/2009---6/23/2009
f3: Mothership Zeta----------8/3/2009---10/8/2009-----8/3/2009
fnv: Dead Money----------12/21/2010---2/22/2011----2/22/2011
fnv: Honest Hearts----------5/17/2011-----6/2/2011---5/18/2011
fnv: Old World Blues-------4/19/2011----4/19/2011--4/19/2011
fnv: Lonesome Road------9/20/2011-----9/20/2011--9/20/2011
fnv: GRA/couier's stash---9/27/2011----9/27/2011---9/27/2011
***I couldn't easly find information abouth the other oblivion DLC's so they are ommited for this mini-report.
So, next, going from each row, we look for the earliest release date (xbox) and subtract that from the latest release date:
----------------------------------time difference (days)
oblivion: Shivering Isles---------------204
f3: operation anchorage--------------247
f3: The Pitt-------------------------------191
f3: Broken Steel------------------------142
f3: Point Lookout-----------------------107
f3: Mothership Zeta---------------------66
fnv: Dead Money------------------------63
fnv: Honest Hearts----------------------16
fnv: Old World Blues---------------------0
fnv: Lonesome Road--------------------0
fnv: GRA/couier's stash-----------------0
So far this gives us an average time to wait of approx. 94.18 days with a std. dev of 90.4 days.
Aslo if you plot this data it appears that the overall trend is that the time to wait is decreasing linearly or possibly even slightly exponentially however, this doesn't accurately describe what's actually happening. Instead, what we can say is that for each title, the wait to release on all platforms has decreased from the initial wait time for the first DLC for that title.
Anyhow, the std dev tells us that this DLC would be released anytime between now, September 28th and December the 27th at the latest.
But, we can still do better. Assuming that for the last three dlc of new vegas microsoft didn't pay off bethesda (given that there's 0 time to wait for release on all DLC titles) we can ommit the last three data points. I omit the Honest Hearts wait time too because even though it's possible that microsoft paid for exclusivity for the Honest Hearts DLC 16 days seems small compared to previous deals.
Thus, the new average is approx 145.71 days with a std. dev of approx 71.20 days. So that would set the dawnguard release date from September 8th 2012, November 18th 2012(avg), to January 28th 2013. The good news is that if Skyrim follows the trend of the previous Bethesda titles, the time to wait for the next download content for skyrim should be less than the time to wait for this one.
Thanks for your time,
Yuki
PS: It is apparently very difficult to post tables on the forums here, you can't use excessive spacing to help allign table values and how much space the hyphens take up vary from line to line (in a way which it doesn't vary when your actually typing out the post)! Therefore, getting a table value to line up is a blind task, and I just hope its not too unreadable for you.