» Sat May 28, 2011 6:49 am
Let me be devil's advocate.
First, Old Andy, dredging companies are unable to operate at that depths, we are talking about 1500 m. There are not much they can do. The physics itself is very strange, hydrates are forming, the pressure is huge, temperature are less than 2-3 deg celsius. Their boats cannot do anything at that depth ranges.
I can assure you that BP is using very competent people to kill this well. Halliburton, despite being my competitor, have very competent staff. My company is involved as well. This is far from being an obvious situation to handle. For example, you have to calculate that at 1500 m, the pressure is around 155 bars, more than 2200 psi, pounds per sq.inch. So pumping cement or heavy drilling mud involves using very high pressure equipement. The cement must be able to thicken inside salty water, with very low temperature. The big risk I see with their 'top kill procedure' is to fracture the formation, fracture will extend in cone around the well and put the sea bottom surface in communication with the well and then, it gets worst. I experienced that in 199on a well and it turned nasty when gas started to bubble 100 m around the rig. But practically, this is probably one of the best option.
I have been involved in risk and uncertainties evaluation in drilling, it's actually one of my area of competences. When drilling a well, a probabilistic risk evaluation has to be carried. If the risk is too high in some domain, one has to find a way to mitigate or prevent it. Problem, the way people are carrying these risk evaluation is based not on engineering input but on knowledge input from experts. I worked on a software (very modestly) which was using the engineering input and automatized this risk calculation thus avoiding human bias. It's very difficult to put in the mentality of average driller, especially in the US, to use this application.
In addition, don't forget what I said, people wants CHEAP OIL, they are not ready to pay 159 $/barrels, with an oil at 1$ per liter. They want to pay the oil the same price than spring water. They want to keep using their big SUVs. At the end, any human activity is a trade off between risk and cost. Increasing security on deep offshore wells is very possible. One well will cost 150 millions instead of 75 millions US$, that's all. It will impact on field development costs and finally on the consumer.