Sounds like your quite the roleplayer.....

If you dont care about reloading everytime you fail at something then just do it.

But IRL, at least the way I understand it, pickpocketing is more of a skill than anything else. A pro checks out their target, identifies what they have that's worth stealing, assesses the difficulty of stealing it, and then forms an approach. The only thing missing from Skyrim's pickpocketing feature are specific methods of approach.

Also, people are complaining about percentages being assigned. But some things are easier to steal than others. People will tend to keep more valuable items in safer places on their person. If someone's carrying $1,000 on their person they're not going to have it hanging out of their front shirt pocket. It'll be somewhere on them they feel is safe. Therefore more expensive items should be harder to steal.

A mini-game of different approaches and strategies could be developed; but like anything else, something else in the game that's more important might have to suffer for it.

Yeah, but there is no tangible way to measure luck IRL.

How would a pickpocket even know if he was lucky?

I would contend, that indeed, perhaps the IRL pickpocket just knows how to maximize his luck.

Subjective though, no way to prove it either way.

It's a skill. A carpenter can make mistakes when he makes a chair. A good carpenter can correct the mistakes he makes and waste a minimum amount of material while creating a product that looks good.

Likewise, a good pickpocket can do the same and will have ways to handle getting accused of pickpocketing. There's quite a bit of skill involved in this. Knowing how to apply pressure with your body via a bump or the like while slipping an item out so it goes unnoticed. Doing that in a way that is natural. Being able to palm or hide an item so no one sees you grabbed it (or to move it around if accused so it seems like you don't have it if a guard asks you to empty your pockets). Sure there's an element of chance, but that doesn't mean there isn't a huge amount of skill.

How does a pickpocket know he is lucky? A good pickpocket has to be able to assess his potential targets. He AVOIDS being lucky, because that means he picked a target that was difficult. A common pickpocket wouldn't do that, because he knows that means there's a higher chance of getting caught. There's no reason to go after a tricky target...just go after an easier one. You'd only do that if for some reason there was a particular item that you needed. This requires a lot of learning to pick up, and certainly a pickpocket is likely to realize it if he made an error in the difficulty of a target, though possibly too late.

Skyrim's system honestly leaves a lot to be desired here. I don't think it would be that hard to have a form of approach either. Heck, it could be as simple as using something like the magic system. You equip a pickpocket ability, "charge it", then release as you bump into your target (or potentially just stand close for some abilities that are for some items). Abilities could be categorized by location "briast pocket", "purse", "finger/wrist", or less accurately be grouped by item type (necklace, keys, rings, gold, etc). I think the former would be better, of course. It wouldn't be too hard for it to factor in how you bumped into the person as an element of success. Perks in pickpocket could slow down time if you held a charged pickpocket ability among other things, making it easier to get off correctly.

Naturally, they'd need to have a way to plant items, but there's no reason why the menu system could allow you to hold any time you wished. Certainly for small items that wouldn't be THAT difficult, I think. As a bonus it would help to create a more immersive environment. Then pickpocket abilities could be equipped into a hand even if an item was already held there, signifying you were trying to place that item. Alternatively, there could be another system to flag an item in your inventory for placement, which would be trivially easy to program.

They could even have a chance of failing without getting caught or succeeding while getting caught. Overall I think the vast, vast majority of the time you should be able to fail or succeed without getting caught. If you do get caught and have no item, then they can't prove anything. If you get caught with an item you should be able to bluff and say they dropped it (persuasion check).

Honestly, I don't think they thought about pickpocketing much and it shows. It wouldn't be hard to have a more comprehensive system.

I would still think it as a skill.

So I approach the guy:
I move slowly because sudden moves will alert the guy. I just can't check his pocket like that. Well, if I am a pro, I can. But for now, I can't.
So I check his left pocket or inner pocket first? I don't know. I don't have the experience to choose the right pocket. So for now, I choose randomly or one by one or maybe player chooses it. In all possibilities, there would be a "one-at-a-time" deal with 100% chance if I can finish the action before the target moves or notices me. The probability will arise from circumstances naturally.

Real-time is not a big issue because we can slow time to mimic our quick fingers. Then you have plenty of time to check all pockets within a small time frame. That would be a master pickpocket. A master pickpocket would find the valuable item in his first pocket check probably. Is it because he is lucky or the experience is working sub-consciously? I personally think, we should keep it real and just play with the time. In all accounts, if we follow real world models, it would be more believable and still respect character skill.

Edit: And what Drachasor said above.

Pickpocketing is actually pretty decent considering :

You can steal every last piece of clothing from an NPC.

You can put poisons in thier inventory.

There is no punishment for casing a target's inventory.

I do like the idea of a speechcraft check on failure, but having no repercussions for failing... seems like it would entirely break the skill.

.....

@OP

Percentages make sense, and reflect the luck that is THE defining feature of the Thieve's Guild in Skyrim.

How does any of that make it decent rather than terribly unrealistic?


Simply, when you have your pickpocketing charged, you get a color indicating whether there's any chance of success. If you've just pickpocketing someone and in some other instances, they get a red glow, indicating they can't be successfully picked again. This lasts perhaps 5-10 minutes. Getting accused probably should lower your rep and make the person dislike you. In any case, there's no real repercussion for failure now, since it just means most people reload.


I haven't done the Theve's guild stuff, but either they are emphasizing the wrong aspects of luck or you're overapplying the message.

To put it another way: Should lockpicking just be random with failing meaning it all blows up in your face?

Pickpocketing skill should instead mean the quality and quantity of items you can lift. As far as the skill goes, if you met the level to lift the item it would be a 100% chance. As far as the game is concerned, the outside variable would be if you are seen or detected by the person or witnesses.

Lockpicking, is then changed to a tier system. Higher skill, higher locks you can pick successfully. Because people don't want to see the mini-game go away, you keep it in. Once you raise your skill say Adept, you would have the option of simply opening Novice tiered objects (bypassing the mini-game). Using the mini-game or clicking open both progresses the skill. Lower tiers of locked items would have diminishing gains, meaning once you get to the point of Expert chests, Novice chests would STILL give you skill increases, but Expert would give you the largest increase.This would mean a player at skill level 1 would not be able to open a Master chest at all - or even the next tier up. Once a player reaches skill level 100, all chests, could be openeded. All tiers then would have the option (including Master) of skipping the mini game and just opening the chest. This gives a sense of accomplishment to the skill and prohibits players at level 1 from opening a Master item.

So what you're saying is you have no business posting under this topic.


Yes, the game does tell you your chance of success, and yes it is bugged and stupid. I've had people wake up and catch me for taking a single lock pick with a posted success chance of 90%, even though I have pickpocket 100, over 100% bonus from gear and all the perks.

Keep in mind that lockpicks weigh 0 and there is no chance a sleeping person would detect a master thief taking it.

As far as I can tell it is impossible to get it over a 90% chance. Seeing as I have all the gear and perks for it and mine always says 90.

The chance of hitting a 10% chance 4 times in a row is 0.001%. Happens routinely in game.

The "random" roll system is guaranteed to be bugged or improperly designed.

I've noticed that when I try to steal back over 2,000 gold from a trainer than it fails 100% of the time. Granted I only tried about 20 times before giving up, but it seems impossible no matter what you wear or how high your skill is.

1.) The game rolling dice that you have no effect on is not challenge. There is no skill involved.

2.) Every battle is a 100%/0% chance. You either win or lose. Running away is losing, just like dying is. If you are good at the game, you have a 100% chance of victory. If you are bad at the game you have a 0% chance.



I'm surprised your constant name calling, trolling and generally childish attitude hasn't gotten you a ban yet.

I've been Stealing Steel arrows from Guards is pretty easy, and levels up Pickpocketing quite quickly. I get caught on the odd occasion, but it seems that some Guards are more aware than others ?

The problem generally is people like you who took one probability class and think they are an expert in it though.

For most people, the experience should be 1 fail in 10 tries. That is what the theory of large numbers and a normal distribution curve state.

Given that I have hit strings of 0.001% chance many times means that in all likelihood there is some error in the "roll" engine. Or I am the least lucky person in the world.

It is supposed to be a role playing game in which your actions have an impact. As in when you get to 100 skill in pickpocketing, you should be unable to be caught as you are the best thief to ever exist in the entire world.

I would have preferred for Pickpocketing to use a mini-game like Lockpocking. Based on slow movement, limited time, gripping and releasing.
Sort of like that 'grab the toy with the grappler' game you sometimes see at fairs, I forget the name of it. At any rate the percentage system is flawed.
I've completely ignored the Thieves Guild and the pickpocketing skill on several characters due to having to put up with this frustrating gameplay as a requirement.

What pickpocketing and lockpicking lacks is a soft failure.

Soft failure:
50% chance of success --> 50% chance of success, 25% chance of failing, 25% chance of getting caught.

There could even be perks to increase the rate of soft failures, and a perk to get a chance for forgiveness, so that the master pickpocket may FAIL and not get caught.
Reduce chance of successful pickpocket on that person for one day.


Have a 90% chance to soft failure a master level lock when you have a lockpicking skill of 20.

Just pay the bounty...sheesh. when you successfully steal an item, give it to your stooge/lackey...er, I mean follower...he never gets arrested!

Gambler's fallacy versus situational probability versus theory of large numbers.



One of the better examples is:
I offer you three doors, with a prize behind one of the three. You select your door. I reveal that one of the doors you did not pick was not the prize and give you the chance to change doors.

In that situation you should ALWAYS change doors. Your odds the first time were 1 in 3 while your odds the second time are 1 in 2. That is situational probability.


Situational probability isn't supposed to hold for series of events though. When people apply it that way they refer to it as the gambler's fallacy, also known as being "due" amongst betters. The issue is the framing.

If you have Red,Red,Red,Red and are betting red or black for the next spin, you are looking at well 4/5 doesn't equal 50%. What you should be looking at is that 4 reds and 1 black is 3.125% but 5 reds is also 3.125%. The improbable event has already occurred (4 reds in a row) so the next spin isn't effected.

Yeah I just realised the percentage chance thing I think it is something to do.with the nightingales.

Math also includes the theory of large numbers and the normal distribution of outcomes. While it would be possible to get 10,000 heads in a row, if you are that lucky you should probably be harnessing that luck somewhere.

The chance of 10,000 heads in a row (0.5^10000) is actually so small that neither google nor excel will display it, even in scientific notation.

My theory is that the space they reserved for the number is very small so it is very easy to roll negative.

ie.) Once you get to 150% it resets to like 10% or something.

Yes, but if the chance of something is 1 in 10,000 and millions of people do it, then you'll have hundreds or thousands of people for whom that low probability comes up. A few of them might complain on internet forums that the probabilities that get displayed to them are messed up.

I bet he Pre-rolls the 1s out of his D20s in dungeons and dragons too eh? Go to TV Tropes and look up "Artistic License Statistics"