Yeah. Then when you break 30 picks on the expert lock and get it open on the 31st, the chest has a minor healing potion and 10 gold in it.

If the odds are 1 in 10,000 and 1,000,000 people try, 100 of them will experience it. Last I saw Skyrim sold 3.4M copies, so that means 340 people should experience such luck. /shrug

Possible, still rather unlikely. Given the sample size, if we assume no one is lying about it, it would be more probable statistically that something is wrong with the calculation engine. Given that people have experienced displayed percentages decreasing with more +pickpocket gear, this conclusion is better supported.

Notcturnal doesn't like you.

I don't like you either.

You better watch it. We're wanted in 12 holds!

The problem is that there are percentages to begin with. I could have a .01% chance to steal an item, that still means I have a chance. With Quick Save and Quick Load, that .01% chance means I have 100% chance. Eventually, I will pickpocket the item I need. The same can be said about lockpicking as well. I can pick a Master lock at skill level 1. It doesn't matter if I break picks, I just Quick Save and Quick Load until I get it open. The best system you can possibly implement is a Skill Check system for stuff like this.

X Tier of Lock or Item requires greather than or equal to Y skill level to open/take it.
Your skill level is below it - you cannot open/take it.
Your skill level matches it or exceeds it - you can open/take it.

There is no % chance after you meet the requirement. Black and White. You can take/open it, or you can't simple and effective. Once you have THAT mechanic in place, look to see what you can do mini-game wise to make it fun and more "immersive" feeling.

This just in, people don't understand math or statistics!! Seriously even a 99% could fail 10 times in a row, random numbers are uh, random.

xbox has a pickpocket % chance I don't like it though but that is another issue.

Each roll of the dice is a seperate action. If you have a 90% chance to succeed then that means you have a 10% chance to fail. If you save before an attempt to steal, there is no seeding or anything of that sort. I've saved before attempting a steal with 56% chance to succeed. I failed, loaded, then succeeded on the second attempt. Another time I had to load 3 times. Each time you load and attempt you are faced with that same % chance each time.

Take a coin flip. Each chance of getting heads is 50%. Now if you wanted to do 2 flips and get heads both times, your odds are 25%. Now even though the odds of doing twice in a row out of 2 attempts is 25%, each attempt is 50%. So after you succeed with the first attempt, you no longer have a 25%, you now have a 50% and even though you had a 25% of doing 2 out of 2 times, you had a 50% chance that the first attempt would succeed.

So if you take a 6 sided dice and want to get a 1 twice in a row...

1/6^2 = 1/36 = .02777 = 2.777%

So for the example in the game. They had a 1/10 chance to fail. To fail 4 times out of 4 tries is...

1/10^4 = 1/10000 = .01%

But just because your odds of failing 4 times out of 4 attempts was .01% before you started, each attempt is 10% and once you fail once, the odds improve to fail 3 more times in a row.

1/10^4 then becomes 1/10^3 = 1/1000 = .1%

It's just best to see each attempt as an independant action because it is.

When it comes to anything to do with luck and chance. Ra'vhash just hopes Nocturnal is smiling down upon him. Luck of the draw! (Even if that does land us both in prison.)

And once you complete the quests for them, you have an immortal who gives you perfect luck. Ergo if you have completed the quest chain every lock should open on the first pick and every theft should go unnoticed.

Muraaaaaaaaagggggghhhhh

(Chewie noise)

Could, but is as likely as winning the lottery.

Let's visit my system where there is 100% chance. It is above somewhere.

For the player, it reads as 100% chance but the player will back off most of the time because the fear of getting caught. For the statistics professors around here, they will see it as %20 chance.

I think we deserve to hold our destiny in our hands even if it is about probability from outside.

That's a rubbish perspective. Running away isn't losing, it's simply a delaying tactic in order to reposition yourself. And being good at the game doesn't give you a 100% chance of victory nor does being bad at the game give you a 0% chance of victory. I don't know how you'd even come up with such ideas.


Horsecrap. Either learn what "random" means or kindly don't suggest that other people don't know what they're talking about.

Random means you can't predict what happens next based on what happened before. It means that the result of the next roll is not affected by the previous roll. What this means is that during a low number of rolls, you might not see something that actually looks random. Just like if you used a regular six-sided die, you might roll a 6 five times in a row. Which is no more or less improbable than rolling 1-4-2-5-3 or indeed any other specific sequence if values.

1) You seemingly haven't taken a statistics class in your life. As long as the next roll is independent from the previous then any sequence would have that probability. What you seem to be suggesting is that because you rolled a 1 last time, your next roll should be biased against another 1. And if you get three in a row then the roll engine should be weighed heavily against yet another 1. Please look very carefully on your average die and tell me if you see that mechanic incorporated anywhere. No? That's because it's not necessary for random results and in fact such interference directly prevents random results.
2) You have a sample size of what, 5 rolls? How the heck can you base any conclusions on that sort of sample size?
4) http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/random

In other words, if the next roll is not completely independant of the former then the roll is not actually random. So no, there can't be any bias preventing you from rolling 1 four times in a row. It also means that any given result on any given roll has an equal probability equal to the number of sides on the die. Which means that rolling 1-1-1-1 is no more improbable than rolling 2-3-5-6 or 5-4-1-6 or any other combination. That's what random means. Now, if you were to roll a lot more than four times then you'd expect the sample to look like a random distribution between the sides and if not you'd be able to speculate that your die isn't actually random, but that does require a lot of rolls.

What the game probably does is pick a pseudo-random number between 1 and 100 and if that number is higher than your probability then you fail. So with 90% chance of success, the game probably picked 91-95-98-92, which might look a bit odd but is in fact no more or less unlikely than 50-32-87-69 or any other combination.

I don't know if you've noticed, but there's no hard ceiling on skills. In other words, you can boost your skills above 100, which means 100 skill doesn't mean "best ever to exist in the entire world". Not even by a long shot. How do you come up with stuff like this? 100 means "as good as you can naturally train yourself to be". It doesn't mean "best ever in the history of humanity", because then gear with fortify pickpocket wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

And yes, it is supposed to be a role playing game, so why shouldn't you be able to fail at some action? Even the best pickpockets occasionally fail. Just like Lance Armstrong didn't win every race he was in or how Tiger Woods didn't win every tournament he competed in or how the Patriots converted their 16-0 super-season into a 18-1 epic failure against what should've been a badly outmatched Giants team in the 2007 SB.

It's quite possible. This thread isn't a random sample at all. It will attract people who feel strongly about pick-pocketing percentages, which will strongly favor people who have a problem with it. Even so, there's hardly anyone complaining about having failed 90% chances 4 times in a row. You and perhaps one other.

And note, it is more than 1 in 10,000 people, because lots of people will pickpocket many times during their play.

Anyone know if there is a cap on pickpocketing like there is with smithing and sneak?

You can exceed the cap in smithing and sneak, causing your effectiveness to rollback to zero.

Maybe the OP, and others, simply put on too much pickpocketing equipment and stacked perks?

Cap on pickpocket is 90% Steal on any particular item...and it doesn't "roll back" - Higher skill levels are required for particularly expensive/large items.

reloaded a save after you fail a pick pocket is an OPTION!

If you think its unfair, cheap, cheating, etc etc THEN DON'T DO IT. when u get caught, don't reload, take the fail and move on... simple.