And the dialogue and characters in F:NV are on the whole much better than they are in BGS games, but I never found the plot of NV to be particularly compelling.
To each their own. Fallout New Vegas is thought-provoking: it places all sorts of different philosophies, shows how they interact with each other in a realistic way and THAT to me is interesting and well-written because it provides a basis for philosophical discussions. I can say "do the ends justify the means" or "is it appropriate to view people as numbers and statistics when leading a nation" and use in-game scenarios to back up my argument. It's thought-provoking in the sense that beforehand I'd never though about how I feel about a leader who sees his citizens as statistics, and while the question is overwhelming, by the end of the day I appreciate that New Vegas threw those questions in my face and forced me to think on them when making my choices in the Mojave. I can understand how someone who's not interested in politics or easily frustrated by a feeling of hopelessness wouldn't like the game or it's story. However, at least do acknowledge a story WAS delivered, and it's an absolutely brilliant one for the target audience.
And the details about being a courier, scanty as they are, are still indelible imprints. I don't question why they created the back-story: it's a useful narrative tool, but it doesn't change the fact that the number of characters I can logically derive from that backstory is less than the number I can derive from being a prisoner in Skyrim.
Courier's backstory revealed in the Lonesome Road.
His backstory is TINY. No no, it has nothing to do with the fact that Obsidian chose to say "you ARE a Courier" or "you DID do this in the Divide." Every game does that in some way. Skyrim says "you DID try to cross the border," "you ARE a criminal" and often implies "you are NOT native to Skyrim." No no, the difference is how Obsidian approached the few characteristics they established. Skyrim acts allergic to the characteristics they establish, New Vegas embraces them. The result is Skyrim completely lacks consistency. They're afraid to call out your character on ANYTHING for roleplaying purposes, but look, the fact of the matter is, they HAVE. You're Dragonborn, you were a prisoner. EMBRACE those points. What Obsidian did right is they embraced that the Courier is the luckiest son of a [censored] in the world, so you have characters saying "OH CMON WHAT THE [censored]" when you survive yet another stacked-odds scenario. They embraced that your Courier has to be tough, and thus NPCs will comment on it. They embraced that the Courier has a theme of death following him (every community around him dies, one way or another, politically or literally or otherwise) and NPCs comment on it. They embraced the cliché of RPG protagonists where you don't know about their backround, to the point where NPCs ask about where the Courier's from and he says "....I don't know :U" or another NPC says "this is why you have no home" in a somewhat figurative manner and cites an event. Is this a problem? Is it an immersion breaker? Not at all, because people have opinions. It's not like....it's not like I'm incredibly outspoken and it NEVER happens in my life that someone calls me "shy." Mistaken conclusions about people are a reality.
The thing Obsidian did right is that when the people call the Courier tough or lucky or death incarnate, they CITE SITUATIONS. "You destroyed the Divide, you're death incarnate." "You survived two bullets to the brain and now you have the Mojave in your hands, you're lucky as hell." Those are the most logical statements in the world for those NPCs to make based on what they know about you. Your Courier could be incredibly peaceful or incredibly unlucky, but if people only know of those two events? Yeah, they'll call you otherwise. It doesn't make you think "OMG MY IMMERSION IS SHATTERED!" Wtf of course not, because the NPCs have made LOGICAL deductions, and you're free to say "lol if only you knew the truth..." whenever an NPC calls you lucky as hell.
Skyrim on the other hand, you punch dragons in the mother [censored] face and the game is afraid to have an NPC call you tough "becuz it'll break immersion if you're a weakling!!11" No, no it doesn't! As long as an NPCs accusation or conclusion has a logical reason behind it, it doesn't matter if they're right or not. That's a brilliant tool Obsidian used to make the Courier a paradox, where he IS a character (has implied characteristics) and yet he can be a blank slate (you're free to easily denounce things NPCs say about you).
Skyrim and EVERY Bethesda game could utilize this, but Bethesda is horribly allergic to breaking immersion, so much so that we got the mother [censored] Warp of the mother [censored] West. They need to stop, because without realizing it, they're actually KILLING the immersion. In their overly-defensive fit of immersion where they're afraid to make any statements, they ironically end up breaking it because NO ONE EVER REACTS TO YOU.
As far as BGS 'losing' their ability to write, I don't think they've ever had particularly good writing for the reasons I explained.
Yes and no. Morrowind's Main Quest, Oblivion Thieves' Guild and Shivering Isles: these were gems, I see no reason such quality can't return. And that's what frustrates me: they've shown they're capable, but it's not happening.