Well here's the numbers as close as I can figure:
FO3 vanilla non-uniques
Unarmed - 4
Melee - 15
Small Guns - 15
Big Guns - 6
Energy - 6
Explosives - 8
TOTAL - 54
FONV confirmed (I'll even include the speculated .223)
Unarmed - 5
Melee - 30 (includes unnamed long sword)
Guns - 27 (plus 3 new unnamed weapons minimum)
Energy - 13
Explosives - 9
TOTAL - 84
Must be gettin close. Almost double. And we're still got another weapon in three of these four calibers coming: .45-70, .50MG, 12.7 and BB.
Just for the hell of it, here's a list of FO3 weapons available for inclusion (ie: models already made and easy to include) with my prediction of likelyhood of inclusion (High chance, decent chance, poor chance)
Spiked Knuckles
Deathclaw Gauntlet
Pool Que
Rolling pin
Police Baton (Wait. I've seen one of these. It's in.)
Switchblade (same with this. I remember confirming this a long time ago from pip-boy shots in the e3 trailer)
Combat knife (this also)
Lead Pipe
Chinese Officer's Sword
Ripper
Steel Saw
Auto Saw
Shovel
Axe
Shock Baton
Chinese Pistol
.32 Pistol
Silenced 10mm Pistol
BB Gun
Dart Gun
Scoped .44 Magnum
Assualt Rifle
Chinese Assault Rifle
Infiltrator
Lever-Action Rifle
Railway Rifle
Sawed-off Shotgun
Combat Shotgun
Double Barrel Shotgun
Alien Blaster
Mesmatron
Tesla Cannon
Alien Atomizer
Alien Disintegrator
Rock-it Launcher
Heavy Incinerator
Drone Cannon
Pulse Grenade
Pulse Mine
Plasma Grenade
Plasma Mine
Frag Mine
Bottlecap Mine
Nuka-Grenade
Cryo-Grenade
Cryo-mine
That's a total of 46 more weapons that the models are already made and just waiting for inclusion. There are some that would make no sense to include, ie: Nuka Grenade, the Alien weapons, maybe the Henry styled Lever-Actions, but I bet a whole bunch of these will end up in the game. I mean, why not? The hard work's already done. All they would have to do was knock a few numbers around in the geck to balalnce them a little better. Right?