I never made any declaration about how this game will do because quite frankly, I've no idea how well it might do. I did say however that with each iteration of The Elder Scrolls, they have gained in sells and fans despite some saying they lost many.
While my post was in response to yours, I was attempting to speak in general terms. I see the "Yeah, we'll lose some but we'll gain more," statement thrown around, sometimes by developers themselves, and it always angers me. BioWare's Gordon Walton will never live down his "Let them quit" statement at the GDC. What is so hard about a developer paying attention to the reasonable requests of potential customers and implementing them in addition to whatever they think is so awesome, but the community doesn't really see it that way? If it CAN be done within the reasonable expectations of development and development can still keep with their design goals, wouldn't it make sense for them to swallow their pride and give the community what it wants? Too many developers seem to suffer from either-or syndrome. With them it's got to either be this or that. The fact that it can be both never crosses their mind.
Another incident with BioWare and SWTOR was that when they were in the process of revealing what to expect from gameplay, One of the devs made it a point to say that they intended to make TOR into a Sandbox/Themepark hybrid. But then durring Beta they practiced revisionist history by backpedaling on it and going so far as to say "What we meant when we said that was," and proceded to give some sort of lame statement that was the polar opposite of that was actually said. This is another reason why I did not bother to purchase TOR. Because this statement was a reversal on what was, and they KNEW to be, a major selling point for a lot of people. See, they KNEW what a significant number of people wanted, suggested that the product was going to provide it, knowing full well that they weren't going to do it. And they thought we were too stupid to realize that.
I'm not saying that this is how it is going to be with TESO. I'm willing to give any new development project a chance. I want to warn you guys now. I will be very open and honest with this community and with ZOS on what I think about things as they are revealed. I may come off as being critical. I have followed the development of enough MMOs and have seen enough examples of developers not playing on the level with their community to recognize them when I see them. SOE pulled that garbage several times durring Star Wars Galaxies' development, and I recongnized the same patterns in TOR's development. I spoke my mind there and got ridiculed for it by the "In BioWare We Trust" crowd, but in the end I was proved right. Having said that, I want to make it clear that my intent will always be to help make this the best possible MMO it can be. My track record of being proved right on so many observations is very steady. ZOS would be wise not to dismiss them without considering their validity. I am not bragging. Quite frankly, I wish I were proven wrong on a lot of what I have observed in the past. I actually WANT to be proven wrong, and will gladly admit to being wrong if I am.
You see, I want into the MMO development industry. I've got so many concepts banging around inside my skull that it's driving me nuts. I know the concepts I have are professional development team worthy, because some developers have actually implemented ideas I've had, but never shared, and they were well received. I had a concept for a game like BioWare's Neverwinter Nights, in terms of user mods that download in mere seconds because all of the assets are stored locally and only the data files that tell the game how to place them and how they behave need to be transferred. That Idea came to me FIVE YEARS before NwN was even announced. The fact that a professional team came to the same conclusions I did, proved the validity of my reasoning.
Problem is, I don't have a college degree in ANYTHING, I cannot afford to get one anytime soon. All the professional positions have a degree listed as REQUIRED, not preferred. Either that or a minimum number of years of experience. But I'll never get the experience if nobody hires me. Yeah, I know... Boo hoo hoo. the point is I've got major obstacles in the way of getting into the industry, so I have to live my dream vicariously through those who are there. Nobody wants to hire an idea guy, in spite of the fact that without ideas there can be no game. It wouldn't be so bad if I actually saw new ideas being presented in what the industry offers. I've got my eye on The Secret World and Guild Wars 2 right now, because they are the two pending MMOs that even remotely seem to be wanting to try to innovate to even a small degree. Now I've also got my eye on TESO.
Well that's the rundown of what I am about. I spoke about human arrogance, and I know some are probably thinking that I am expressing arrogance of my own. I assure you that is not the case. I speak only from YEARS of observation and experience on how many developers relate to their potential customers. I'm not afraid to point things out when I see them. I know I'll be ridiculed for what I point out, but I'm used to it and have grown some pretty thick skin.
No matter what happens in any series, some play every one and are happy, some aren't happy and stop playing and some new are attracted.
Yes. I know. But like I said, the problem lies with developers who are too rigid in their own creativity that they refuse to see where it would be in everyone's best interest to give a little. Why make a unilateral decision that knowingly alienates a portion of one's potential player base, when it is not outside of the realm of possibility to add what is being asked for so you can keep those people as well as add new people? MMOs are very diverse in their playstyles. And each of them are going to voice their concerns about what the game in question does or does not offer them. Many times the concerns of one group are completely dismissed in favor of another group. The developers in those instances are ignoring the fact that the way to approach development for an MMO is to draw as many playstyles to the game as possible so profit can be maximized. They dismiss concerns as trivial and people just give up. Those developers practice what Gordon Walton preached about "Letting them leave." But what they don't take into consideration is that these people could potentially bring hundreds of players with them. They are members of huge guilds in other games, and they want to make sure that the new MMO in development will have a place for everyone. The largest guilds in an MMO are the most diverse. And in some cases, if the word of just one person suggests that the game isn't going to offer a place for everyone, if that person has proven himself trustworthy in the past, entire guilds go on that one person's recommendation. So right there, one person could have brought hundreds of new players, but because of the developer's "This is how we want it and so that is how it's going to be" attitude, it's hundreds of new players that will keep their money flowing to the competitor's coffers.
It is my hope that ZOS will not be so inflexible that they cannot see the wisdom in some cases of taking what the community says to heart. If one person says something feels wrong, that's just one person's opinion. But when the majority says something feels wrong, and observation shows that many of those who feel that way are typically on oppiosing sides of issues, then it should be sending a clear message to the developers that they need to rething the situation and try to find a solution that satisfies the concerns. Yeah, it might mean delaying the game's release by a couple of months. But you can only launch an MMO once.
This may be an unfortunate move that flops but thus far there have been losses and gains with each new game in the series but each new one far outsold the one before. I'm sure no crystal ball gazer who can predict how this game will sell. Merely pointing out to someone that despite losses of some, the gains in fans and sells has far out numbered those so unsatisfied they left the series behind.
I realize that. But developers can only ride that mule just so far. At some point, they will jump the shark so badly that it won't work out that way. Not only will they lose fans, but they will fail to attract enough to make up for it. And at that point, they will never regain what they lost. SOE exoeruebced that with Star Wars Galaxies. Their fundamental design changes alienated more and more of their already hemorhaging player base and drove them away at each change. And they NEVER regained what they lost. All because they refused to listen to the voices of reason in the community. Not the ones that called for grandiose additions to gameplay. But the ones that simply asked time and again for the bugs to be fixed and content to be added. None of the grand changes they made to gameplay were asked for by the community...
So ZOS needs to take time to identify the level-headed clear thinkers in the community and put stock in their observations. And actually let it have an effect on forward-going design. People will always ask for the impossible, or at least for what would be a ridiculously major undertaking to implement. But at the same time there will be a few who will put forth great effort to examine what already exists and propose concepts that are reasonably within the realm of possibility based on what's already there. Sometimes, little things can go a long way towards big results. ZOS needs to be flexible. If they are not, then this game will not reach anywhere near its full potential.
Star Wars Galaxies should have been a phenomenal success. SOE was sitting on a goldmine. They just refused to dig. So SWG spent eight years dying a slow and painful death.
I am very optimistic in terms of the potential I see in this game. I intend to be a part of this community for the duration. And I promise to try my best to be one of the level-headed clear thinkers in the community. Sure, I'll lock horns with ZOS and members of the community. But my intent will never be malicious. I want this game to be successful.
Take care...