Notice how Ulfric said "Skyrim will lead TAMRIEL against the Thalmor" That means he intends to get support from other nations to fight the Thalmor, not just have Skyrim fight Thalmor. Funny how Empire supporters forget to mention that line

You want to persuade me to believe in what you think? If such is the case then pardon me for throwing a minor essay after you, but you did say you wanted to convince me. And convincing me is somewhat word-intensive, I'm afraid. Sorry.

This much I agree with. What you should not forget, however, is that Summerset Isle hasn't been consistently plot nuked for the past three TES games and in-between. Summerset Isle is furthermore largely a fortress that is ridiculously hard to invade. Finally, as you say, tactics and planning. But you're forgetting one thing: Vastly superior with respect to espionage and covert manipulation. They out-spied the Blades, despite all the resources the Blades had. The WGC simply allowed them to open an unlimited hunting season for those they knew to be Blades operatives, but the Blades were already hurting before that time.

I disagree with your conclusion here. The Thalmor had just lost their entire invasion army. It is obvious that they couldn't rebuild a new army and invade again right away. Even so, there's this approach called border raiding. They could've repeatedly sent small forces into Cyrodiil to do quick raids and run back out again. The border between Cyrodiil and the Thalmor-"friendly" lands of Elsweyr and Valenwood is too large that the Legion can lock down all of it and there'd also be the possibility of naval insertions. This would be something the Thalmor could do pretty much unchallenged, and the Empire would not be able to stop it, since doing so would mean mounting an offensive on Valenwood and Elsweyr. Considering the already serious level of war-fatigue at the time, such a prospect would be terrible.

The Thalmor, meanwhile, have terms that more or less allow them to do what they initially wanted to do. They're not bound by the peace treaty any more than the Empire is, and the moment either side see a decisive advantage in renouncing the treaty and going to war, they'll do so and not give a damn about the treaty. Effectively, the treaty is largely worthless. What really matters is that the Thalmor and the Empire have agreed to put aside total war for now. The war is still there, both sides know as much, but it's a cold war currently. The Thalmor can't allow the Empire to prosper and the Empire can't let the Thalmor win, since "Thalmor win" effectively means "Empire loses".

Why isn't the Thalmor attacking already? Because they clashed with the Legion and realised that it was too big a mouthful. When you have all the time in the world, there's no reason not to play things safe and manipulate conditions to favor you as much as possible, before you make your move. That's what the Thalmor are doing. If the combined Empire is too strong then the logical thing to do is to divide the Empire into smaller pieces. During the Great War, the Empire was Cyrodiil, Skyrim, High Rock, and Hammerfell. Now Hammerfell is out and Skyrimg is trying to get out as well. What was a big empire back then is a much smaller empire now.

Again I think your conclusion is a bit off. The Dominion has just gotten an ass whopping at Red Ring but prior to that, they prison-[censored] the Imperial City, capital of Cyrodiil and the Empire. That's not a situation where you trust a peace treaty all that much, which means it's also not a situation where you throw everything you have into the invasion of some "inferior province". The Thalmor assembled an army of what was left after the invasion force got wiped out, and I refuse to believe they emptied out their lands to do this, which in turn means the assembled army was mostly reserves. Even so, it fought against possibly the most fierce swordsmen of Tamriel for five years and still didn't get destroyed. And this was a reserve army.

Why don't I think they threw everything they had after Hammerfell? Because the Legion was still alive and kicking at the time and if they had gambled and gone all in then the Legion could've joined the fun by sneaking along the coast and effectively encircled all the remaining Thalmor forces. Then it would've been Red Ring 2, but this time it would've been devastating to the Thalmor. After this, the Empire and Hammerfell would easily make friends again and an invasion of Elsweyr and Valenwood would be next. This can't currently be done because both provinces are somewhat heavily garrisoned, but remember that the premise was Thalmor sending everything they had into Hammerfell. Surely that would thin out the garrisons. Since the natives of both provinces aren't hugely fond of the Thalmor, it's very possible that the provinces would fall. That would also remove the Thalmor foothold on the mainland.

Because the conditions would be vastly different. It seems unlikely to me that an invasion of an independent Skyrim would take place before Cyrodiil and Hammerfell have been completely broken. It may be 200 years into the future, but operating with that time frame isn't a problem for the Thalmor. And once the Thalmor control pretty much everything south of the Skyrim border and west of Black Marsh, I really don't see how an isolated Skyrim can put up much of a fight.

The great war ended in 4E175. Current time is 4E201. That's a mere 25 years after the Thalmor captured most of Cyrodiil and Imperial forces recaptured it. 25 years isn't a long time, not even for humans, not even if they breed like rabbits.

Whiterun is Imperial and I've yet to see any Thalmor drag that Talos priest away. The Justiciars are not really hunting for worshippers anyway, they're simply doing intelligence-related wet work. Of course, due to your friend Ulfric, they're largely forced to make a show of it, since he went out of his way to demonstrate how the Empire wasn't at all enforcing the ban. If Ulfric had not made all that noise for no gain whatsoever, the Thalmor wouldn't have had a diplomatic incident they could use for leverage to demand concessions and things would be much better for everyone.

Effectively, Ulfric screwed over people living in all parts of the Empire for his own gain. And please don't give me crap about how he has the vision of a free, strong Skyrim. Well, he may want that but he wants it under his leadership. And that's not going to be good for SKyrim, because he's not actually all that bright.

This proves nothing other than that he cares about traditions. Which is not surprising if he actually wants a united Skyrim behind him. He could not hope to be recognized as anything but a tyrant unless he did this by the book, and with the Empire defeated there's no real time pressure either. He can take his time and wait for things to be done properly. It's logistically impossible for the Thalmor to mount an offense and the Empire presumably doesn't have the strength to mount yet another offense right away. The only threat he has left is a civil refusal to recognize him as the legit High King and ruler.

All this implies is that he's a complete, [censored] [censored] with no damn grasp of history or military strategy beyond the most basic elements. First of all, there's no easy path to Summerset Isle. You have to go by boat and boats are very vulnerable to stray fireballs torching the rigging or eventually setting the wood on fire. Skyrim, unlike the Vikings of old, also aren't historically experts in naval warfare, while the Thalmor are historically very good at it. Which makes sense, since they live on an island, after all.

Further, there's the fact that the greatest Nord to ever live, the famous Tiber Septim, the man who was so badass he became Talos, only managed to invade Summerset Isle with the aid of the Numidium. For those who don't know exactly what that is, it was a golem much like Akhulakan from Morrowind. Which was that massive thing you see hanging over the lava when you're heading for the heart of Lorkhan during the final clash with Dagoth ur.

Propaganda piece? Well... Bear of Markath was written by Arrianus Arius, the very same propaganda writer who wrote "Madmen of the Reach - A defense of the Forsworn". There's no reason to think he'd be helping the Imperial side the least bit, considering how he directly contradicts Imperial claims that the Forsworn are just a bunch of freaks and brigands.

Why would Nords, of all people, talk about atrocities committed either by them or by their parents against a group of people they consider savages and from whom they've taken the land they currently own? This is effectively shia vs sunni or settler vs native American. Of all people, Nords are the least likely to raise the issue of how Ulfric beat the Forsworn.

What you should also consider is that there's little dispute of some basic facts. One, the Forsworn did not slaughter a whole lot of people when they took Markarth, and two, a lot of non-Forsworn were suddenly dead after Ulfric had "liberated" Markarth. The Reach belongs to the Nords the same way America didn't belong to Indians; because the new owners say so, and they have superior force to back them up.

Obviously. Who was the Jarl at the time? The mad-with-anger son of the old Jarl, who got killed when the Forsworn took Markarth? Are you telling me he was cruel against the Forsworn? Really? No kidding? The same worthless piece of horsedung who happily murders or imprisons otherwise innocent people to cover up his rather atypical justice system, and who made the infamous promise about religious freedom in the first place, only to abandon it once he got his city back and needed Imperial support to hold it? There's no way I can imagine him being a dike to the Forsworn, even if he's officially under Imperial jurisdiction. His personal integrity is much too great for him to stoop so low.

That's ridiculous. Tiber Septim had the entire Empire under his control, not as an alliance but as one kingdom, and he still needed the Numidium to take Summerset Isle. The alliance you're suggesting has so many political squabbles waiting to happen that it's beyond belief (and High Rock will happily go straight to civil war if not under Imperial control), the alliance has no Tiber to be the inspirational icon, and it leaves out a quarter of the Empire of old.

For such a ragged bunch to join forces and march into Elsweyr and Valenwood to kick out the Thalmor, well... I think you're badly underestimating the logistical nightmare that an offensive war is. For them to somehow invade Summerset Isle, well... That's like the Dunmer invading Black Marsh and not getting destroyed. Unless gamesas drops a plot nuke on Summerset Isle, there's no way Ulfric and friends can mount an offensive against the Thalmoor.

By the way, the book The Great War describes Hammerfell as having been invaded as far north as Skaven, and Hegathe was besieged for quite a while, which means wanton destruction in all but a strip of land along the northern border of Hammerfell. Skyrim has just been through a civil war. Do you really think either country are in any shape for a long and bloody war, with tremendously stretched out supply lines?

Obviously, I don't think that's the case. I believe that the best shot, and really the only shot, is for the Empire to remain. Skyrim going independent is exactly what the Thalmor would want to happen, since it undoes whatever recuperation the Empire has been doing for the last 25 years and also totally undermines Cyrodiil. If Skyrim goes independent then the Empire will almost inevitably fall, and the Empire is what has been keeping Thalmor aggression at bay.

The majority of the Legion is of course, Nords, And tullius's second in command is a nord.

Hammerfell: Didn't hurt, and it also made the Thalmor believe that the empire was still actively engaging them in Hammerfell, which led them to underestimate the empires forces in Cyrodiil.

Balgruuf the Greater: While mostly reasonable, he has a personal grudge against Ulfric.

Thalmor: It's really hard to know how much strength they have left. It is entirely possible they are a paper tiger. I doubt they could mount a major offensive on their own in the next few years. Allies? Pfft. However, the tone of what Thalmor documents we uncover seem confident about their future. This may simply be because (i) doubt is seen as weakness/disloyalty; and (ii) the empire hasn't the will to fight and they know it. About that last point...

The real problem likely is that the Elder Council is made up of very rich people who care about money (which is how they became very rich.) They are needed to fund a war, and they wanted peace with the Dominion. I doubt it was just Titus Mede II. They certainly don't care about Talos. Also, the Nords were free to worship Talos .. in secret. But the Nords/Ulfric was/were too proud to do so. And some have said that the peace treaty involved a lot of money for the empire. That money would have found its way to members of the Elder Council, no question. Treachery at the highest level is probably how the Thalmor expect to win. The sad part is, they are probably correct.

Maybe you should read up on what happened on The Night of Tears. The Snow Elves didn't simply attack the Nords, they slaughtered all of them but Ysgramor and his two sons. They fled to Atmora and returned years later, ready to return the favor.

He wasn't in service to the Emperor when the War was over. And the Empire didn't betray him? They didn't limit his rights after fighting a war for them? They didn't imprison him for helping them take back a city that they couldn't hold from a pack of native-savages? Have you completed the Stormcloak questline? Because despite what the Jarls say, instead of 'claiming' the thrown of High-King he let's Elisif remain Jarl of Solitude and High Queen until the Moot rightfully names Ulfric the new High-King.

So Madcat the Nords should quit whining about the Loss of freedom of religion and focus on defending an Empire that abandons and or ignores serious issues in provinces that aint Cyrodil.Gotcha.

Off-topic how do i post the hidden spoiler thing

OP, your anolysis is truly outstanding, and this topic has made for the most enjoyable read on these forums I’ve had in ages. Well done, all!

I’ll admit I've been on the fence regarding the civil war, and I think I may know why. It is the same reason anologies to real-world political leaders and various historic conflicts continually come into play. Real life has been conspiring to keep me from really delving into the lore as you clearly have. I have yet to experience the Thieves guild, DB, or either side of the civil war conflict personally.

Probably the biggest reason I fell in with the Empire was the “divide and conquer” argument, however without that essential background in TES lore, too much of my own anolysis is based in real world conflicts at present which aren’t necessarily anologous. I still feel that both sides have their merits and drawbacks, as no two Imperials or Stormcloaks are alike, and such is the snowballing nature of war.

What you have done I feel better represents the true spirit of Role Play, and it is much more productive and refreshing than many of my own previous rants about this or that or what have you. I’ll confess, not being able to pull myself away enough to really get into this story has been quite frustrating. But that frustration doesn’t translate well into productive dialogue, and I feel I’ve probably inundated the forums with more than my share of negativity and cynicism.

My compliments to you, sir. Truly you are a welcome light in dark waters!

I'm also surprised that so many people think banning a religion and integral part of a country's culture is nothing. Have any of them read history and seen how serious people take their religion? By that logic, freedom of speech should be banned since "people have their opinions. If they don't say it out loud, they'll have no problem."

1.And Brought the "Mighty" 500 companions I know the "story", I also know that your suppose to forgive your enemies. The Nords of soilstem instead of Burning the body of the "Falmer leader" they placed him in a tomb that was fit for a king,

2.He still Swore an oath, You also forget one thing, when he "says" he will let the moot decide, The whole list of jarls are stormcloak supporters, very noble...Also Read "Bear of markath"

This is just me, But its strongly implied that The Empire always turns a blind eye to Talos Worship, Its even implied that Tullius himself stills worships Talos.

What other nations? Hammerfell is hardly in any shape to go offensive. They've had a mere 20 years to rebuild a rather devastated southern half of the country. Cyrodiil isn't going to join in. Morrowind is still nuked to kingdom come. Black Marsh will never join. High Rock has been relatively peaceful for a few years but without the Empire to keep factions united, well...

Really, there aren't a whole lot of nations that he can possibly hope to unite, unless he wants to go all Tiber Septim. And if that's his plan then he's a [censored] wackjob, if you'll pardon my French.

Yep. There's a Talos shrine hidden in a mountain's foothills near Froki's Shack, which is also not too far from the Rift's Legion camp. At it you'll find various Legion paraphenalia left as offering.

Not sure about Tullius, haven't seen or heard anything to that effect... but Rikke certainly is one. And so is Hadvar.

Alinor's forces:
Legions of goblin slaves to fight for them
Legions of daedric servants
Many Bosmer archers
Khajiit have sworn allegiance since the Altmer may have been responsible for Massa and Secunda disappearing
All Khajiit forces will aid them.
Can deploy the Senche-Tigers in battle (aka giant tigers that spew magic)
The most skilled war-wizards in Tamriel, able to decimate hordes of Imperial Troops
Superior weapons and armor for their soldiers
The largest Navy as Alinor is bordered entirely by sea
Not even Talos could take Alinor without the Numidium


Vs.


Man's forces
Imperial Legion (inferior soldiers)
A smaller, though adept navy
Breton Mages and Battlemages, (many in number, but usually less skilled than an Altmer)
Stormcloaks (fewer than legion troops throughout Tamriel, inferior troops)
A'klir (Redguards, the most naturally talented warrriors)
Synod, College of Winterhold, College of Whispers, Companions (Decent sized force)

Note: Can breed faster than altmer

Overall: less than what Tiber Septim had, lack of dwemer superweapon also lowers chances of winning.


Probable outcome: 87% chance of a Thalmor victory
Argonians neutral and content in Black Marsh

The thalmor situation is not good. High chance of failing with a fragmented Empire.

Even with a united Tamriel, whether under Ulfric or the Empire, chances of survival are low. The chances of winning are practically zero against the superior forces that can be fielded against man.

Dragonborn. And Dragons.

Rallying dragons... that will be the Numidium stand-in. Mark my words. The Dracs certainly would have cause to take wing against the Thalmor, seeing that the Thalmor seek to end everything, even the cycle of kalpas. Heck, maybe you can convince the Graybeards that ending the Thalmor qualifies as "True Need".

Maybe arsing the Psijic Order off their butts will lend to this confederacy to combat the Thalmor.

Red part is a major strawman on your part and in my eyes it is also evidence that you've given up on any sort of reasonable discussion. It is a major misrepresentation that is so far gone that you may as well just claim that the Empire are evil and the Stormcloaks good and kind, with Ulfric being the bestest of them all. The red part is complete and utter nonsense and you damn well know it.

You forget...The Orcs are loyal to the Empire that means...
Oh yah Orc Shock troopers

Imperial and stormcloak soldiers inferior??? Arent men stated to be physically stronger than mer?

The Stormcloacks are true, and they are the right one, but their leader is not.

All I'm saying is, even with orcs, we're screwed no matter what.

That's why we need another shezzarine.

"Sigh" If only we had the Staff of chaos...

Spawn a Thalmor justicar, spawn a stormcloak.

Repeat with Imperial. The average Thalmor wins every time.

That's why the chances of survival went down. Their weapons and armor are better, elven beats steel and iron.

I also wish for the lord's mail too.