Not really. The Aldmeri gained zero net territory in the Great War, and technically lost. And even if Skyrim does kick out the Empire, they, and hammerfell, are still going to work together as fellow kinsmen against the Thalmor, should they invade.
Begging your pardon, but what TES lore or historical TES canon (aka events that have actually occured in previous TES games like Arena, Daggerfall, Battlespire, Hammerfell, Morrowind or Oblivion) is this hypothesis based on?

You do of course, understand that saying there's bad blood between the Redguards of Hammerfell and the Empire is a complete understatement? You do of course, realize:
-that even though the Aldmeri Dominion "lost the battle" and gained zero territory in the Great War, that this loss triggered the Civil War now raging across Skyrim?
-that even though the Aldmeri Dominion "lost the battle" and gained zero territory in the Great War, that this loss has greatly weakened the Empire (aka human power across Tamriel)?
-that a lack of decisive Imperial leadership was what was responsible for triggering the Civil War now raging across Skyrim?
-that
the Imperial's impotent leadership of the empire was what caused 5 of it's 9 provinces (i.e. Valenwood, Elyswer, Morrowind, The Black Marsh, and Hammerfell to secede from the empire? And now it apparently seems to be Skyrim's turn--starting to see a pattern here? That the same impotent Imperial leadership is clearly what has been responsible for the civil war, because it has been clearly underminig what's left of the empire?
-that even if the Imperials win--
regardles of what side the mighty Dovahkiin chooses to champion---the resulting "unified empire" will be so incredibly weak and unstable, that the Aldmeri Dominion will end up "wining the war"? Because if this comes to pass, the balance of power in Tamriel will shift directly into Aldmeri hands?
My God can you even comprehend the underlying significance of what the Aldmeri presence in Skyrim means to all Nords in general in Skyrim? That the Dominion presence is an ominous reminder of when the Snow Elves attempted to anhilate all of the first humans who settled in Skyrim? That the balance of power in Tamriel is slowly begining to shift toward the Elves? And that if the Elves "win the war" this will mean the extinction of the entire human race in Tamriel?
Have you had the pleasure of meeting any of the Thalmor Justicars in your travels while adventuring on the roads lately? If so, have you had the opportunity to experience their incredibly sweet disposition? Are you finally begining to understand why the Elven Thalmor Dominion gets a genocidal rush second to orgism eveytime they see a human??
