My Opinion
I support the Stormcloaks and oppose the Empire for a number of reasons. By allowing Elsweyr and Valenwood to fall to the Aldmeri Dominion and doing next to nothing to assist Morrowind and Orsinium, the new Empire has failed to win my approval. They further disappointed me with their actions in the Great War. The Empire valiantly fought and defeated the Aldmeri Dominion Cyrodiil, annihilating all of their forces, and the Redguard Alik'r Warriors put a dent in Lady Arranelya's Army (the Largest Aldmeri army) when it was crossing through the Alik'r Desert. Following the Battle of Red Ring, the Empire decides to negotiate a peace treaty. Yet, after such a great victory, they end up signing the White Gold Concordat, which is almost a carbon copy of the ultimatum presented to Mede some 5 years before the war. If the Aldmeri Dominion was able to conquer Cyrodiil, they would have done it. In the end, the Dominion was just as weakened (if not weaker than) as the Empire from the war. The Empire was in a great position to negotiate, but they didn't. Instead, they created the White-Gold Concordat:
-Disbandment of the Blades (the Empire's spy network).
-Banning of Talos worship.
-Large portion of southern Hammerfell are ceded to the Aldmeri Dominion.
-The Aldmeri Dominion is allowed to move throughout the Empire, unrestricted and unquestioned.
The only thing that can justify agreeing to these terms is if Mede II overestimated the Aldmeri Dominion and believed them to be a much larger threat. This is the most plausible explanation, and I believe it is due to the Thalmor purging the Blades out of Alinor. By doing so, the Empire doesn't have a reliable source of enemy intelligence; they wouldn't know their tactics, plans, manpower, etc.
Hammerfell opposed the terms, and the Empire was forced to renounced it as a province. And so began another war, this time between just the Dominion and Hammerfell. In the end, Lady Arranelya's weakened army and whatever reinforcements it received fought an indecisive battle with the Redguards. They were ultimately forced to withdraw from the country. But what does that say about the Aldmeri Dominion? It shows how weak they truly are. They are unable to hold onto their own territory; and they enthusiastically accepted the WGC because they aren't strong enough to defeat the Empire.
However, this brings me back to the White-Gold Concordat. The WGC essentially turns into the Empire into a puppet, and puts them on a great disadvantage for the next war. The WGC allows the Dominion to gather vital political and military information on the Empire, there is no doubt that the Thalmor have planted countless sleeper agents within the Imperial infrastructure. Furthermore, it allows them to slaughter the population; yes, I said slaughter (have you visited a Talos shrine, recently?). They claim that they are rooting out Talos heresy, but they don't need much proof to go on (what is the Empire going to do about it?), as witnessed with Thorald Gray-Mane or when encountered a squad of Justiciars yourself. The Empire may not agree with it, but they are going to powerlessly allow it to continue.
With this armistice, the Empire is playing the waiting game with the Dominion and the Thalmor, and if they keep it up, they are eventually going to lose. While rebuilding is essential if they want to have any chance of defeating the Aldmeri Dominion, they are doing it under unacceptable circumstances. If Skyrim becomes independant, it becomes openly hostile against the Aldmeri Dominion. The WGC no longer applies to them. While I do not think Skyrim alone is enough to destroy the Aldmeri Dominion, I suspect Skyrim will form a confederacy with Hammerfell and possibly High Rock. The WGC will apply to none of these nations, and they are a lot less cosmopolitan than Cyrodiil, making it exceedingly difficult for the Thalmor to infiltrate their higher echelons.
What are your thoughts on this?