[Emma-Jane Merrin]

tuesday release date incoming.

[Dagan Wilkin]

tuesday release date incoming.

Link or it didn't (wont) happen.

[brenden casey]

tuesday release date incoming.

Be careful when you say this...you are going to creat more chaos! lol

[des lynam]

tuesday release date incoming.

Don't do that please, although I like to think that the vast majority of posters in this forum recognize a spam nonsense post when they see one and won't go cartwheeling off on some random post.

[Darren Chandler]

Don't do that please, although I like to think that the vast majority of posters in this forum recognize a spam nonsense post when they see one and won't go cartwheeling off on some random post.

I agree...it is not a great idea to post that...especially when everyones passions are running so high. It is a good way to get people upset...which just causes more bad than good.

[Izzy Coleman]

Just a feeling brosefs =)

[Nick Swan]

Just a feeling brosefs =)

That feeling can translate into "CONFIRMED" for some.

[Craig Martin]

Just a feeling brosefs =)

That would almost make up for all of the silence.

[u gone see]

I just hope that when Bethesda does announce a solid release date it included the ps3 group at the same time. If the ps3 people are excluded for even a small amount of time afterwards I would consider it a major failure on Bethesda's part.

[Nathan Barker]

I am starting to wonder if Pete keeps saying "we have never discussed a realease on any other platforms other than xbox" due to the exclusivity. Maybe are saying that to make sure microsoft knows that no one is talking..... just making sure all ends are covered perhaps?

[Sharra Llenos]

I WOULD PEE MYSELF IF IT CAME OUT ON TUESDAY! THAT WOULD BE AMAZING. one can only hope/dream.

[Heather Dawson]

I just hope that when Bethesda does announce a solid release date it included the ps3 group at the same time. If the ps3 people are excluded for even a small amount of time afterwards I would consider it a major failure on Bethesda's part.

Well, Bethesda seems to love Xbox, be indifferent to PC, and hate PS3...

[C.L.U.T.C.H]

Apparently the moderators think this is the forum for suggesting people not buy anything form Bethesda until the scrap this timed exclusivity nonsense and learn to make games that work the first time. So here's my suggestion:

In a capitalist market, the only thing companies understand is money. So withhold your money from them until they start behaving the way you want them to, or someone else does in which event you give Bethesda's old business to them. Angry posts on forums, angry emails to companies, that doesn't matter. All that matters is that when they do get around to releasing their game, we all say "too little, too late" and they either get their business straight or fade away to a better company.

If that's true, then why did they do away with the whole thing of making everyone hostile towards you when you're a stage four vampire? Oh yeah, that's because there was so much rage on the internet about it. Also, I don't think boycotting Bethesda products is going to work out so well for everyone, since that could have the adverse effect of causing them to file for bankruptcy protection, which most people wouldn't want. What does seem to work in terms of getting Bethesda to listen and do things is to simply discuss the issues in question in a constructively critical way on the forums and modders on PC doing things about it (which in turn, some of these mods have inspired content for future titles and DLC). I think they must figure that if they annoy people too much, then they will lose business, which is actually true in cases, so they try their best to cater to popular demand in order to boost their image. At least that's the impression I tend to get from them, with the patches to fix bugs and adding in popular features that were previously cut. They might want to work on better transparency if at all possible, though, at least in terms of certain announcements, anyway, like why PS3 didn't get Patch 1.6 when everyone else did, for example.

About launch plans, it's only been about three days since the exclusivity deal expired. They'll probably mention something in the next couple of weeks. Right now it's probably just best that they say nothing at all for the sake of publicity. I'd rather they say something that pans out to be true rather than making an announcement and not going through with what they originally said in the announcement. The latter already happened once before with the Creation Kit where it didn't release to the public when they promised it would, and I'm sure they don't want that to happen again.

[trisha punch]

Another interesting conversation over at Mr. Hines twitter page. I don't see it being cancelled but it could indicate additional testing was warranted. The ironic part is that I've always been saying I would rather have a patch to dlc. Seems I got my wish with the pending 1.7 . I usually d/l the beta client but last time it busted a few of my mods so I've decided to wait it out this time.

@DCDeacon Wait, so is there any particular reason why #Dawnguard for pc/ps3 was canceled? 360 version too buggy? Didn't sell? -eldarmark
@eldamark Just sit tight. We'll have info soon. -Pete Hines

[Rozlyn Robinson]

Another interesting conversation over at Mr. Hines twitter page. I don't see it being cancelled but it could indicate additional testing was warranted. The ironic part is that I've always been saying I would rather have a patch to dlc. Seems I got my wish with the pending 1.7 . I usually d/l the beta client but last time it busted a few of my mods so I've decided to wait it out this time.

@DCDeacon Wait, so is there any particular reason why #Dawnguard for pc/ps3 was canceled? 360 version too buggy? Didn't sell? -eldarmark
@eldamark Just sit tight. We'll have info soon. -Pete Hines

It's pretty much the same as before (word for word). Nothing new here!

[Harinder Ghag]

He is pretty much the worst PR guy ever. instead of "just sit tight. We'll have info soon" he could have said "Just rumors, please wait until we have info to give." No, he had to say it in a way that seemed to confirmed the cancellation.

[Jack Bryan]

No, I read that as "I haven't been authorized yet to tell you when we're releasing Dawnguard, and until I am I really can't even drop hints."

Could he phrase that better? Sure. But I feel that there is just plain too much negativity on these forums. We're all anxious to play around with the Expansion, but we'll just have to wait a little longer.

Bethesda does not hate any platform, and they welcome fans however they (legally) play. In all honesty, it's Sony's fault for requiring a different style of development platform from the Xbox 360, which is all but identical to the PC developing platform. It just plain takes longer to convert things over to work properly on the PS3, and Sony seems to be dragging their feet when it comes to approving the new patches. Remember that Oblivion didn't get ANY DLC on the PS3 - that wasn't because Bethesda didn't want to support their fans on the PS3, they just weren't able to get the logistics to work the way they needed to.

As far as the exclusivity goes - yeah, it svcks, but that's business. I honestly think that there are folk at Bethesda reading all of the complaints about this, and it will probably play a role the next time Microsoft or someone else approaches them with a similar offer. For now, the contracts are signed and no amount of whining or threatening to boycott future products is going to bring you Dawnguard or Hearthfire any faster.

[Ana]

I just hope that when Bethesda does announce a solid release date it included the ps3 group at the same time. If the ps3 people are excluded for even a small amount of time afterwards I would consider it a major failure on Bethesda's part.

It takes Sony forever to get anything up, the PC people are bound to get Dawnguard first, since once it is ready there is not going to be some extended waiting period waiting for it to be approved. The PC players are already beta testing the patch the PS3 players need before they can get Dawnguard. it would hardly be the first time DLC had different release dates on different platforms.

Bethesda never gave a release date for the PC/PS3 versions, so nothing is late, since the Xbox 360 had a 30 day exclusive period it seems pretty safe to assume everyone gets it eventually. If it was just the 30 day exclusive period for the Xbox360, they would have announced the release dates for all platforms once it was available for the XBox 360. More likely the Xbox 360 version was finished first, they let some fans beta test it and made a deal for that version while still working on the other versions. If we are waiting for them to fix all the bugs in the PS3 version of Dawnguard, it might not turn up for a while.

[michael flanigan]

Hello again,

So, this is in continuation of my post in part 12 and part 13 of this same thread (I would post links but I'm not allowed to). In part 12, I gave data showing how long we have had to wait to get DLC released on all platforms after the initial Xbox release for the new vegas DLC's that were delayed, the Fallout 3 DLC's, and a DLC for oblivion (info on Oblivion DLC was hard to find). Also, in the part 12 post I gave an average 'time to wait' value including all data points and one with ommited data points (see original post for reason). In the part 13 post I created a linear model and performed a linear fit to it to show clearly how the time to wait for delayed DLC's has been derceasing over time for each iterated release of the DLC. Using the linear model I posted another prediction for about how long we would have to wait for this (Dawnguard DLC). I really wish I could post the graphs of the data, linear model, and the data and models to be presented in this post but I can not post links to other websites where I could post the graphs or imbed the graphs into this post, so if you want to see the graphs you'll just have to do that part yourself.

Anyways, this time I wanted to look at the data in little bit of a different way. I first used survival anolysis. Survival anolysis was originally used in engineering to predict time to failure for PC's and PC components, then it was adapted for conservation biology and ecology purposes to explore population dynamics of living animals. This time I used survival anolysis to anolyze the 'time to release' for all previous delayed DLC releases in our data set. Here's the summary from the survival anlysis

time n.risk n.event survival std.err lower 95% CI upper 95% CI
63----7----1----0.857--0.132----0.6334 ---- 1.000
66---- 6----1----0.714-- 0.171 ---- 0.4471 ---- 1.000
107---- 5----1----0.571 --0.187 ---- 0.3008 ---- 1.000
142----4----1---- 0.429 --0.187 ---- 0.1822 ---- 1.000
191----3----1---- 0.286 -- 0.171 ---- 0.0886 ---- 0.922
204----2----1----0.143 -- 0.132 ---- 0.0233 ---- 0.877
247----1----1----0.000 ---- NaN ---- NA ---- NA

records n.max n.start events median 0.95LCL 0.95UCL
7 ---- 7 ---- 7 ---- 7 ---- 142 ---- 66 ---- NA

Then I took the survival curve data from the survival anolysis and fitted it to the solution for the differential equation:

P' = r*P*(P/K-1) (with r and K being constants, those with a keen eye will recognize this being similiar to the equation for logrithmic growth)

I then modified the fitted equation so that it would give us the probablity that the DLC will be released after the initial given release by that time measured in days. This is the equation:

probTimeToWait(t) = 1 - 1.1065/(1+exp(.0189*(t-113.7841)))

So, the averages from post 12 was a wait time of 145.71 days and the less accurate 94.18 days. Our formula, probTimetoWait(145.71 days) tells us that there will be about a 60.88 percent chance that the DLC will be released 145.71 days (on 11-18-2012) after the xbox release date given Bethesda's past history. Similarily, probTimeToWait(94.18) tells us there's a 34.54 % chance for the DLC to be released by this date ( 9-28-2012) based on Bethesda's past behavior.

Lastly the linear model gave us a wait of a mere 47.822 days, probTimeToWait(47.822) tells us there's a 14.06 % chance of the DLC being released by this date (8-12-2012) given Bethesda's past behavior.

This probTimeToWait model assumes that each release date isn't influenced by the previous DLC release date. This may make it more appealing but its worth noting that the linear model from the previous post does bring up ample evidence that the time to wait for DLC has been decreasing over time. Anyways, I still find this model very fun and maybe you will too.

Thanks for your time,

Yuki

[Czar Kahchi]

...Cute, but wrong. We'll be seeing Dawnguard in August, barring hideous bugs

[Big mike]

Not buying it will tell them we dont want DLC and they will take it away.
If they don't have a release date, how could they give one?
They say that because the can't determine when it will finish.
So stop ranting and deal with it, they are a buisness at the end of the day. Not your best friend.

hey bro watch this hey Bethesda are we friends? am I a valued customer? do you feel obligated to inform your customers? do customers come first? but honestly if I asked them tht and they had to answer what do you think day will say???

[Daddy Cool!]

In order:

"No, but we thank you for being a fan!"

"Yes, you are"

"Whenever we have anything solid we can tell you, we do. In cases where we can't say for certain, we'll release a statement like the one posted at the top of this board."

"We value our many fans and customers, and want to give them the best product we can in a timely manner. We honestly don't have a date set for this particular release, because we're (running into issues / unable to announce it due to executive decision / haven't announced it yet because we're waiting until Tuesday / any of a dozen other reasons that we, as non-Bethesda employees, are not privy to)."

Just hold on. They are not deliberately insulting anyone - these kinds of projects take time. If you think Vanilla Skyrim was buggy, imagine what it was like before they ran their own QA testing on it.

Now, if you're arguing about the price, okay, I understand where you're coming from.

[Lily]

In order:

"No, but we thank you for being a fan!"

"Yes, you are"

"Whenever we have anything solid we can tell you, we do. In cases where we can't say for certain, we'll release a statement like the one posted at the top of this board."

"We value our many fans and customers, and want to give them the best product we can in a timely manner. We honestly don't have a date set for this particular release, because we're (running into issues / unable to announce it due to executive decision / haven't announced it yet because we're waiting until Tuesday / any of a dozen other reasons that we, as non-Bethesda employees, are not privy to)."

Just hold on. They are not deliberately insulting anyone - these kinds of projects take time. If you think Vanilla Skyrim was buggy, imagine what it was like before they ran their own QA testing on it.

Now, if you're arguing about the price, okay, I understand where you're coming from.

yup and exellent post thts prolly what they will say ya and we might not be friends but its not like they dnt owe us anything cuz they do great post ps I dnt mind waiting and I am not saying anything bad about Bethesda I have always loved and trusted them honestly only time will tell.

[His Bella]

And if Bethesda gives a date then misses it for some reason, people post dozens of threads in all caps ranting about how Beth lied, they hate the [insert platform of your choice] players, and generally managing to be disruptive to the forums, to say the least. My personal preference is that they don't announce a date until they know for sure they will make the date.

Considering the statement regarding the timed exclusive, and the fact that no one official has announced that Dawnguard will *not* be released for pc and ps3, I'm content to wait. In the absolute worst case scenario I wait until the compiled goty type edition is released, and I buy it then. Do I want it? Yes. But I'm content to wait.

I am afraid its not a matter of impatience but a matter of people feeling as if there was a display of ill will toward them from Bethesda. People will of course complain invariably but I am afraid their lamentations are not as exaggerated and as profound as people like to draw them as.

Edit: In addition to this, a declaration of belitting(quite strongly at that) of those that frequent your forums is disheartening. The event of said accusation may be seen on page five of this forum post. The person you had chosen to exemplify displayed no true hostility toward anything but the fact that Bethesda was proving to the world they are a business.

Apparently the moderators think this is the forum for suggesting people not buy anything form Bethesda until the scrap this timed exclusivity nonsense and learn to make games that work the first time. So here's my suggestion:

In a capitalist market, the only thing companies understand is money. So withhold your money from them until they start behaving the way you want them to, or someone else does in which event you give Bethesda's old business to them. Angry posts on forums, angry emails to companies, that doesn't matter. All that matters is that when they do get around to releasing their game, we all say "too little, too late" and they either get their business straight or fade away to a better company.

The first sentence is the only thing I see here that could be worthy of any intelligent antipathy, it wasn't uncivil or immature.

[lillian luna]

Another interesting conversation over at Mr. Hines twitter page. I don't see it being cancelled but it could indicate additional testing was warranted. The ironic part is that I've always been saying I would rather have a patch to dlc. Seems I got my wish with the pending 1.7 . I usually d/l the beta client but last time it busted a few of my mods so I've decided to wait it out this time.

@DCDeacon Wait, so is there any particular reason why #Dawnguard for pc/ps3 was canceled? 360 version too buggy? Didn't sell? -eldarmark
@eldamark Just sit tight. We'll have info soon. -Pete Hines

The fact that Pete didn't deny that it was cancelled worries me greatly.