I agree with the OP to an extent.
At first i couldnt get on with Morrowind after going to it from playing Oblivion, but it grew on me, and i thouht the fact that you might fail casting a spell etc... added to the realism, as you'd expect not to be able to cast spells perfectly to start with. And as you get better in the skill, you can cast spells more consistantley with was an enjoyable goal to work too.
It may not be 100% realistic, but i think the concept makes sense.
In the case of magic I actually agree with you. Maybe not
quite to the crazy extent that Morrowind had at lower levels, but failing to cast should really be a possibility. It would certainly be interesting to bring this back in future games. At the lower levels, and certainly trying to cast high level spells.
I think how much you miss depends most on what armor the other guy is wearing. I did SCA combat a few times when I was a kid, which tries to simulate shield+heavy armor combat. You tend to hit but get blocked. In kendo there is also a lot of blocking. In fencing you get parried, for fighting with a light weapon and no armor you dodge more. But spear fighters in Africa or Papua New Guinea also use a shield quite often. The best way IMO would be to put in a dodge mechanic that was mainly based on armor weight, if you wanted to be realistic.
Maybe. But as you say, Blocking is the bigger part in close quarter fighting. I think both Oblivion and Skyrim deal with that pretty well. At close quarters a guy with a Shield DOES block a lot of your blows in Skyrim, and only enchanted weapons truly break that deadlock sometimes.
A specific dodge mechanic would be great if the game still had spears and the like. But I don't think we'll ever have those back again.